Jan 3, 2008 10:23am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
GBPJPY
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75972&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199373804
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1445
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 10:25am
Learntocount
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
242 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
go to a 4 hour and tell me what you see........
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1446
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 10:28am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Learntocount http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Looks like a 4 in the making on gbp/jpy.....when in doubt, go to longer term charts and use Fibonacci and the norms of the waves...i.e. wave 4 does a 38% retrace of wave 3.......when the waves get complex, fall back on the rules...you may miss a trade or two on pairs that don't act right, the key is find one that does exactly what it is supposed to do and ride it to the barn......
Looks like a triangle in the making for the wave 4 of Leg A of the the bigger wave 4.
Price has retraced wave 3 almost near 38.2% which I think makes it a high probability wave 4 . Then A long trade on the breakout or I could wait for wave 5 to end for this 5 wave structured Leg A.
Then Short it for a Zigzag B wave of this wave 4. what do youthink Tim?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75974&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199374217
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1447
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 10:36am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
EURUSD
Price has retraced upwards by about 50% as we anticipated. Most likely I will be looking at the FE 100.0 for the C = A Zigzag wave which incidentally falls on the 61.8% retrace quite common for wave 2s.
Eyeing 1.4656 which is also near the Low of previous day @ 1.4641
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75978&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199374936
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 3, 2008 10:42am Reason: wrong chart
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1448
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 10:40am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Here is my GBPJPY 4 hour chart.
Daily chart added
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75977&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199374831 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75981&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199375286
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1449
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 10:47am
Learntocount
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
242 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
I'm looking for 219ish also.....so don't sweat the small stuff.........sell when we get there and you can justify an ABC with C having 5 waves on a 1 hour chart.....take it to a new low and count your money.....
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1450
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 10:50am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Learntocount http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I'm looking for 219ish also.....so don't sweat the small stuff.........sell when we get there and you can justify an ABC with C having 5 waves on a 1 hour chart.....take it to a new low and count your money.....
Again Thank You Tim.
I will be counting waves on this wave 5 UP on GBPJPY.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1451
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 11:08am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Here is what I see on the USDJPY monthly chart
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=75984&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199376458
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1452
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 1:26pm
Learntocount
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
242 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
we'll see, thats my alternate.....in the a,b,c,d,e pattern you have drawn it's important to know the count rom 30 years ago on the monthly.....my preferred count is your "A" is my "a" since it was 3 waves a move down out of this pattern woud be a final wave 5...also of note....decending triangles break to the downside.........as long as the impulse waves continue down, follow them and don't worry about a monthly count.......
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76026&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199384739
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1453
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 6:29pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Learntocount http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
we'll see, thats my alternate.....in the a,b,c,d,e pattern you have drawn it's important to know the count rom 30 years ago on the monthly.....my preferred count is your "A" is my "a" since it was 3 waves a move down out of this pattern woud be a final wave 5...also of note....decending triangles break to the downside.........as long as the impulse waves continue down, follow them and don't worry about a monthly count.......
Good morning Tim..
I wake up to a different scenario than what I was looking forward to before I turned in early this morning on the EURUSD and the GBPJPY smaller Timeframe.
Anyway , I will try to straighten out my bearings in a little while.
As for the USDJPY, my monthly chart data as you can see lacked the data for wave 1 and has an incomplete data for wave 2. I made some assumptions before but felt I was on the right direction when I saw your chart with the complete data of wave 1.
Now I see your wave 2 there is a zigzag confirming my earlier assumptions. So I would expect a Complex sideways expanding wave 4 which should be around 38.2% of wave 3. In this case I would look forward to seeing a FLAT or a triangle as per guideline set bythe book.
So yes, we have 2 potential counts for this monthly wave 4. We can either have that triangle where we can consider all these legs as part of the triangle and that last leg down as already a part of the Final wave 5 on the monthly chart or still just the wave E of a triangle.
Considering that as a wave E would mean that the wave A of big wave 4 is a 3 wave structure. this means that wave B should either be a FLAT or a Triangle. This is where my assumptions that we are in a wave B triangle come in as it is still within the Guideline.
But you are right, we just have to follow what we see on our charts now. At least we have info on 2 possible counts on the longer tf at the back of our mind and know why both are possible.
Good trading to you And everyone else .
Ok... got to have some breakfast before I plunge deep in here.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1454
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 6:58pm
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
EURUSD
Price has retraced upwards by about 50% as we anticipated. Most likely I will be looking at the FE 100.0 for the C = A Zigzag wave which incidentally falls on the 61.8% retrace quite common for wave 2s.
Eyeing 1.4656 which is also near the Low of previous day @ 1.4641
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
====
EG, at 15m chart now like triangle...
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76096&stc=1&d=1199404626
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1455
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 7:04pm
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
====
EG, at 15m chart now like triangle...
===
too small pict...
EG i have 2 position buy 1.4758 and sell 1.4703...which must i closed and which must i go runing...???????http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76097&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199404880
Jan 3, 2008 8:00pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif 1st off
GBPJPY
Expecting GBPJPY to come down to test the bottom at 213.59 in a Zigzag since wave A up was in 5 moves.
If it breaches former low from yesterday, then we are probably back to the downtrend.
If it holds, I just might trade Long on this one on the end of wave 2 of the wave c going up.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76115&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199408359
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1457
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 8:39pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Adji04
I would rather not tell you whether to close or to hold on to any position right now. We have to take responsibility for our own trades. In as much as I would like to help you, the trade offs of holding on and biting the bullet if it goes against you is something every trader needs to learn.
I have learned this the hard way usually sacrificing majority of my capital only to see price retrace to save what would have still been my capital.
To cut the long story short, use proper money management. Like Tim has mentioned in one of his initial posts, we do not have to be in a trade all the time. We just have to select the best ones.
Now here is the long story......
I went out of the market early this morning and went to bed and slept soundly without a trade running. I studied the charts where price would go in the next hours using EW and some other strategies then went off to bed. Now I check if it is still on course then wait and decide for the next set up to trade.
Tim has shared a valuable lesson here and in his thread about trading the breakouts from the triangle and the flag. Waiting for the breakouts from this ABC or 123 patterns which if I understood it correctly does not necessarily give you the most number of pips in a given wave, but it gives you maybe less pips but high probability set ups that you can maximize using your capital even for just a few pips.
A parallel strategy is that of Linuxtroll's Rainbow which uses 5second to 1min and 5min charts just to scalp a few pips at least but with more lots. But he now sells the ebook for that strategy. A free and actually workable and now free Strategy is the one from TheWicker with his Trend Follower Strategy.
But trading the breakouts from the triangles and the flags is probably simpler than the other strategies I mentioned.
The only thing I can suggest to you now is for you to probably go back to demo or reduce your number of live trades PLUS use the least amount of your capital to trade possible while doing LIVE trades.
Then maybe you can start learning to hedge. But hedging is more for the pros. If I as an amateur does that, I have higher risks of wiping out my account. I think one only hedges when they trade heavy.
Now enough of my ramblings..... I hope I helped to enlighten you...
Sorry if that went too long.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1458
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 8:47pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Next the EURUSD
Price has gone up while I slept... retracing towards 76.4% of wave A of what I think is a wave 2 down.
I will have to adjust my targets for the Zigzag wave down.
I think the sub wave c down is having a leading diagonal wave 1 now and likely doing wave 2 before plunging for wave 3 and end wave 5 down @ 1.4679 which is 50% retrace of main wave 1 from 1.4580 to 1.4780 or if extended would then be tillFE 161.8 @ 1.4629 which is also the 76.4% of the main wave 1.Then I would look for new Long trades at this levels.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76126&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199411242
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1459
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 8:59pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
====
EG, at 15m chart now like triangle...
Note that Triangles in Elliott Wave Principles are found in
Wave 1 or A - Leading Diagonal Triangle
===This is followed by a retrace after a breakout to the opposite direction
Wave 5 or C - Ending Diagonal Triangle
=== Followed by an opposite Price direction
Wave 4 or also B - As Contracting, Expanding or as a Barrier Triangle
==== Followed by a continuation of the main trend
Carefull though of breakouts which are actually Throwovers or in some throwunders.
Not all breakouts from Triangle Patterns indicate price direction of the Breakout continuation.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. oooooopppps I missed to include Wave B
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 3, 2008 9:18pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1460
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 9:31pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Here's the wave 2 of the USDJPY.
Thank you Tim
I guess some sleep helped clear up my Brain and eyes.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76134&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199413877
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1461
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 9:54pm
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
we says thanks for u advising...
thank's , i will more learn and patience....
now maybe i will cutt loss for better my live acc (-57pis)...
and stay away for a while till nonfarm employment launched...
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1462
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 11:01pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
we says thanks for u advising...
thank's , i will more learn and patience....
now maybe i will cutt loss for better my live acc (-57pis)...
and stay away for a while till nonfarm employment launched...
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Good idea.
I myself am on the sidelines watching now and will probably get in after the news.
Enough of the stress I have been thru for more than 1 year now trading live and studying at the same time.
I will take Tim's advise to choose the best set -up only even if it means trading less frequently.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1463
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 11:06pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Here is my EURJPY count.
I am not so sure that wave 5 of wave 1 has finished already nor wave 4 going up as if it is wave 4 going up now on the 30 min chart, then it has only retraced up by approximately 25%. I would be looking for around 38.2% towards 162.3, 50% @ 163 and 163.90 for 61.8%
Depends on how the waves develop
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76150&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199419618 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76151&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199419618 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76152&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199419636
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1464
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 3, 2008 11:32pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
EURUSD Possible direction
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76158&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199421137
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1465
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 4, 2008 12:56am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Hi Tim.
Would a breakout from that downward trendline to the UPSide be the wave 3 of the wave C up?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
----- Sorry . my bad. I replied to ask without reading the text fully. sorry again
I Checked the chart again and drew the fibs. So that is where we also get the 219 Projection for our TP. Thanks. I am learning something new from you everyday.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76180&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199426103
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 7, 2008 1:27am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD
Watching AUDUSD and NZDUSD for a possible Bear trend for Short to Medium tern trades.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76761&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199687241
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1479
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 1:38am
Learntocount
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
242 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
good calls...I'm already short the NZL and I've been waiting all day for 8750 on the aussie.......
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1480
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 2:17am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Learntocount http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
good calls...I'm already short the NZL and I've been waiting all day for 8750 on the aussie.......
Too bad... am already late for the NZD party. Unless I get a chance with this potential retrace on the 5min/15min chart which will allow me to ride till 0.7500
As for Eurusd, I am also watching for a retrace up for what could be a wave c of wave 4. I already have a small position for this and will get out when it finishes 5 waves up on the 5min or 15min chart
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 7, 2008 2:32am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1481
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 3:32am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif NZDUSD
This is how I see NZDUSD's movement
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76789&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199694653 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76790&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199694653 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76791&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199694676 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76792&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199694676
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76793&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199694706 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76794&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199694706 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76795&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199694734
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1482
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 3:47am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif NZDUSD 4hour
NZDUSD view
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76806&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199695651
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1483
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 4:49am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD
AUDUSD
Daily and Monthly Pivot @ 0.8745
Weekly Pivot @ 0.8753
An almost tripple top at the 15 min chart is observed.
The way I look at this, if price breaks thru the 3 pivots.... most likely this pair will turn Bullish in the next 2-3 days.
Revising my wave count. Looks like pair is about to start wave 5 of wave 3 down.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76833&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199699738
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1484
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 5:38am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
skippping AUDUSD and NZDUSD now as I am stuck with my Long EURUSD.
Unless EURUSD on the 15 min chart goes up for a Zigzag or Flat Wave 2, then I think I can unload my long eurusd and trade the wave 3 down on the 15min chart.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
2057 Asia : Update: looks like I will be able to get out of my Long trade soon with what looks like a wave 2 up.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 7, 2008 7:50am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1485
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 8:30am
money
Multiple Usernames
Member Since Jul 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif106 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EUR/USD
nice moves on EURO
yes- to new highs.................i hopehttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
what you think EG, where you will get out. I have in my mind around 1,4744. And then new entry after wave 4, not sure yet....
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76899&thumb=1&d=1199712606
Jan 7, 2008 11:48am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
this is how I see EURUSD now
Will be counting 5 waves up for sub wave C of Wave 2.
Potential resistance again at the weekly pivot @ 1.4737
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76945&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199724397
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1488
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 12:09pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Alternate Structure on the wave 2 count of EURUSD
attached is an alternate wave structure for EURUSD
it could be a wave 2 expanded FLAT
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76956&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199725763
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1489
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 12:29pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
A Potential Scenario on the GBPUSD similar to what Possibly can be observed with EURUSD.
Triangulated structures have been observed in some EW set-ups. I present this just for the record of recognizing the potential set up.
At times, successive triangulated structures are found first on a lower time frame and afterwhich it plays out will then proceed to develop the same set - up on the next higher time frame.
So let us watch if this GBPUSD plays this out and also the EURUSD.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76960&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199726723
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1490
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 12:38pm
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
i'm stiil prefer eur/usd alt-2.as long as 4750 didn't break prefer sold. refered to chart alt-2,
i ask you,..EG,referred basic theory fibo/elliot it's need to retrace "lower below 4650-4630 before another leg up (target 1.5)??????http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif
thx,http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/notworthy.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1491
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 12:51pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Leading Diagonal 1 or Ending Diagonal 5 for the GBPUSD Proposed triangulated structure.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76967&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199728304
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1492
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 1:01pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
i'm stiil prefer eur/usd alt-2.as long as 4750 didn't break prefer sold. refered to chart alt-2,
i ask you,..EG,referred basic theory fibo/elliot it's need to retrace "lower below 4650-4630 before another leg up (target 1.5)??????http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif
thx,http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/notworthy.gif
This alternative wave count and proposed structure may play out what you see on EURUSD.
I have exited my Long EURUSD at BE. Waiting for a better set up for a short or a Long Trade. I have a bias to wait for a Long trade based on this last potential set up under the intertwining of EW and Triangulation.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76969&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199728823
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 7, 2008 1:16pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1493
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 1:15pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Triangulating SR Trendlines
hhhhmmmmmm....... still watching EURUSD
Note that Blue wave 4 retraced almost 50% of wave 3
And if we consider the next wave as the 5th wave down, then based on the current structure, we can see that the potential wave 4 Magenta has retraced wave 3 magenta by 38.2%.
This is getting closer to what has been proposed. It is also likely that price does not touch the green downward support trendline. And it may also overshoot or make an underthrow.
Best is to watch and count the waves.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76974&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199729502
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1494
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 1:33pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
I moved the first point for the downward support trendline
and have included the fib extention for the potential wave 5 magenta to show possible meeting at the support trendline
Next is the question on whether proposed bottom at 1.4635 approx. is just end of wave 1 of wave C down or the end of wave C down already and that the potential bounce off that trendline will bring price to toward 1.5000
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76978&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199730766
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1495
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 2:21pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD
AUDUSD
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76988&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199733660 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=76990&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199733660
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1496
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 3:31pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif NZDUSD Potential set-up for the week
Potential set up for the week for NZDUSD.
It looks like a wave 2 or a wave 3 of a wave C Up of a bigger a wave 2 UP is developing on the NZDUSD on the 15min chart.
An upward channel has been formed.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77002&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199737797
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1497
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 4:33pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD
Possible FLAT corrective wave 4 on AUDUSD
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77017&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199741583
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1498
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 7:05pm
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I moved the first point for the downward support trendline
and have included the fib extention for the potential wave 5 magenta to show possible meeting at the support trendline
Next is the question on whether proposed bottom at 1.4635 approx. is just end of wave 1 of wave C down or the end of wave C down already and that the potential bounce off that trendline will bring price to toward 1.5000
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
===
Morning, EG...
refer to alt-c ..if today price close below 4687-4700 start counting w.4 to w.5 down. with target down 4630..
and "if this trenddown occured"and stop at 4630(w.2)..will be trigered next (w.3 or w.5) if 4750 broken...
the question is...will be ECB raise interest???? i think none,for a while/keep rates unchange...(maybe yes..or maybe nothttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif )
thanks EG http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/notworthy.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1499
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 7:14pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif NZDUSD
Looking to finish wave 5 of wave C inside Bigger wave 2 UP.
Otherwise, 1st sign of down trend resumption is overlap of wave 4 with wave 1
Followed by breakout to the downside of the channel
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
...... had to replace charts . most likely not wave iv but wave iii.2
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77051&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199751932 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77052&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199751932
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 7, 2008 7:50pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD 4h
AUDUSD 4h
Breakout to the UPSIDE will signal resumption of wave 3 UP
A breakout to the DOWNSIDE will most likely develop a Zigzag wave 2
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77054&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199753314
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1502
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 9:03pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD
AUDUSD 1hr
Price has breeched monthly pivot @ 0.8744 and encountered resistance at the weekly Pivot @ 0.8755
The way I look at it, If price continues to encounter resistance at the Weekly Pivot level, then it would lead to a formation of a triangle wave B after a 5 wave Leg A
Afterwhich Leg C down will complete a Zigzag for wave 2 Down.
Then the BIG Wave 3 up continues.
Fibonacci Projections are:
Wave 3 @ 0.9070 - 0.9183
Wave 5 @ 0.9367 - 0.9480
with maximum @ 0.9850
I did not believe last 2006 October when I started Trading live that from 0.7500 price would go to 0.8800
at that time I thought it was far fetched. Then it took 10 months for price to achieve that level. what I did not note well was the retracements.
But should this pan out, best level to buy is at end of wave 2
1st SL at origin of wave 1
once wave 4 is achieved, move SL to end of wave 2
then when price for wave 5 exceeds end of wave 3 move SL to end of wave 4.
I must be dreaming...... somebody wake me up.....
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77067&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199757311 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77068&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199757311
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1503
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 7, 2008 9:20pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD Daily
replacing initial chart for more details.
Ok. I had my doubts on the continued downtrend based on my wave count on eurusd.
However when I saw the Price action on the daily a few minutes ago, I must admit that EURUSD looks more like heading down for a bigger correction.
1.4505 falls @ the 61.8% retracement for wave 2
Pin bar and the bearish engulfing candle indicate bearish bias for this pair.
So now I would be looking for a nice entry for my short trade.
EGhttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77071&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199759491
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 7, 2008 9:31pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1504
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 8, 2008 6:54pm
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
replacing initial chart for more details.
Ok. I had my doubts on the continued downtrend based on my wave count on eurusd.
However when I saw the Price action on the daily a few minutes ago, I must admit that EURUSD looks more like heading down for a bigger correction.
1.4505 falls @ the 61.8% retracement for wave 2
Pin bar and the bearish engulfing candle indicate bearish bias for this pair.
So now I would be looking for a nice entry for my short trade.
EGhttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
===
my direction same as U. my Sl stand at 4735/4750/4825.Eu need correction down bef Another Leg Up..
correct me if i wrong,thanks EG..http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/notworthy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77388&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199836335
Notice too that price is right below 100 sma on the 15min chart and right above the daily pivot @ 1.4709
4hour stochs is going up and has crossed 50 level.
Price is stil inside the Price Range of yesterday. I am looking out for a breakout of this range too.Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77437&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199853395
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 8, 2008 11:52pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1506
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 12:08am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
or we can see it this way too...
as a symmetricasl triangle with the 33333 structure having a throwover on the wave e of wave 2
But if price goes above the 100sma on the 15min chart and then goes higher than the following:
weekly pivot @ 1.4737
yesterdays' high @ 1.4740
Daily R2 @ 1.4747
Then I might just have more bias for the upside for this pair.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77442&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199855428
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1507
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 12:18am
Learntocount
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
242 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Can I throw in my two cents.......I have a entry sell at 4695......and it doesn't matter what happens till it gets hit....go trade a pair you can read some structure and jump on a impulse wave......trying to count waves like this will make you old and in the end, you'll probably be wrong just like I always was when I tried counting abcxyzabcxabcde.......draw a line at the top of the correction and at the bottom...odds are it is going to be a continuation wave of the down move off 150ish...wait for it and make pips off impulse waves......now, back to counting........http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1508
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 12:23am
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
or we can see it this way too...
as a symmetricasl triangle with the 33333 structure having a throwover on the wave e of wave 2
But if price goes above the 100sma on the 15min chart and then goes higher than the following:
weekly pivot @ 1.4737
yesterdays' high @ 1.4740
Daily R2 @ 1.4747
Then I might just have more bias for the upside for this pair.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
===
clear,...today i'm hedging too B 4720 SL 4695 TP 4760..
thx for "warning" sign....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1509
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 12:31am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
wave 2 limits
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77444&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199856705
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1510
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 12:52am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Learntocount http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Can I throw in my two cents.......I have a entry sell at 4695......and it doesn't matter what happens till it gets hit....go trade a pair you can read some structure and jump on a impulse wave......trying to count waves like this will make you old and in the end, you'll probably be wrong just like I always was when I tried counting abcxyzabcxabcde.......draw a line at the top of the correction and at the bottom...odds are it is going to be a continuation wave of the down move off 150ish...wait for it and make pips off impulse waves......now, back to counting........http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Thank you Tim. It is true trying to count waves on the lower time frames is starting to wear me down. I am actually already starting to scale out of my counting. I used to count down to the 1mim chart and doing that on the GBPJPY alone. But my reasons then was to get more adept at counting by practicing more often. That was focus on just 1 pair so I can get to know it better while practicing counting on all tfs plus its volatiltiy. It sure was a rough bumpy ride. But I think I got a load of practice from that. Not saying I had enough coz I still need more.
I am scaling out to the 5min and the 15min these days coz my MM is not as relaxing as that of others maybe. I guess I am feeling some pressure to get to the turns sooner than later to avoid any loss. But YES, I will keep trying to scale out some more like the 1hour and 4hour next time. And lower TFs only for timing the entries.
hhhhmmmmmm it may still sound the same for others... but in truth it is not.
Basing trades on the higher TF like 1hr or the 4hr gives traders less signals therefore less trades to monitor compared to getting signals on the 15min and less charts.
Anyway, I have set my SL at 38 pips total. so if it goes down, I get to profit on the way down. But I will hold on to my Long trades and suffer the drawdown as it completes the Corrective wave. Then allow it to recover while I get in again at the bottom for another long trade after the correction.
I am doing this because I believe that the longer term wave count is still bullish. Otherwise I would have to get out of my Long trade now.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1511
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 1:03am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
===
clear,...today i'm hedging too B 4720 SL 4695 TP 4760..
thx for "warning" sign....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
Hey adji04
I think you mis understood why I brought up those scenarios and why I am trading this way. I was not warning anyone that the price is going up. I just presented scenarios I thought were possible based on my wave counts which are quite numerous.
I am not saying I know how to hedge and I sure hope you do not just base your entries on my wave counts.
You have to have a reason why you are hedging and must really be able to accept your SL incase it gets hit. ( I am not saying you do not have a good reason for what you just did) Just cautioning you here.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1512
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 1:24am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
Price went up to 1.4733 breeching Daily R2 @ 1.4732
Weekly Pivot @ 1.4737 is still close by. It could still try and take that out.
next hurdle is yesterdays high @ 1.4740 then
Daily R2 @ 1.4747 followed by
1.4770 which is Daily R3 and Murrey Math Major Support and Resistance Level and 50% of yesterdays Range.
Price is currently between the weekly pivot @ 1.4737 and the Daily Pivot @ 1.4709.
But already broke out to the upside of the downward channel on the 1hr chart.
15min chart shows an upward channel for now.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1513
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 3:22am
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Price went up to 1.4733 breeching Daily R2 @ 1.4732
Weekly Pivot @ 1.4737 is still close by. It could still try and take that out.
next hurdle is yesterdays high @ 1.4740 then
Daily R2 @ 1.4747 followed by
1.4770 which is Daily R3 and Murrey Math Major Support and Resistance Level and 50% of yesterdays Range.
Price is currently between the weekly pivot @ 1.4737 and the Daily Pivot @ 1.4709.
But already broke out to the upside of the downward channel on the 1hr chart.
15min chart shows an upward channel for now.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
====
EG, luckyly, i closed buy position manually in minutes bef jump down occurred (-6pips).. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif with this current position still favor down targets 4658..
EG, i still refered U suggestion...thxhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/notworthy.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1514
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 6:43am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
Here is a view on the 4 hour chart of GBPUSD.
I would love to get more of this set ups.
Bullish Harmonic Patterns already present on the
15min
30min
60min
1440min Daily
5min is potentially playing out a wave 4 up of 240min
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77554&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199878712
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1515
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 7:15am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Alternative scenario
move from 1.9652 going down now could be the last wave 5 of the sub wave 5 of what seems to be a near ending diagonal triangle.
The ending diagonal triangle does not fit that well into the structure. just nearly. so be careful.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77561&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199880270
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 9, 2008 9:19am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
EURUSD
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77598&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199888356 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77599&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199888356 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77600&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199888376
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1517
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 10:24am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
EURUSD
Have managed to to reduce potential net loss to -19 by exiting a short trade then entering at a slightly higher level
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77605&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199891706
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1518
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 2:01pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
GBPUSD Heads up for me
Price has breached FE 161.8 of A not so much . But the fact that it has breached that level puts a doubt on whether wave C has ended
Or pair is currently developing the wave 3 down.
But looking at the 15min chart, I see another ending diagonal triangle.
Could this be a case of "An ending diagonal wave 5 to end an ending diagonal wave 5 of a higher degree with a throwover to finish off a higher degree wave C"?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77682&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199905249 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77683&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199905249
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 9, 2008 4:41pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
Triangles abound
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77720&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199914853
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1521
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 7:38pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
EURUSD
Adjusted / Revised my wave count on EURUSD 15min TF
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
update
pinbar followed by what could be a bearish candle
this may not align with my wave count if that pin bar indicates a reversal now. Wave 2 normally retraces beteween 50-61.8% up to 100% of wave 1.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77766&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199925421
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 9, 2008 7:55pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1522
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 7:54pm
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
EURUSD
Adjusted / Revised my wave count on EURUSD 15min TF
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
======
step by step i understand how elliotwave works....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
thx EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1523
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 8:13pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
======
step by step i understand how elliotwave works....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
thx EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
Good for you adji04...
For EURUSD, it is also likely that the fist Zigzag UP on the 15min chart is just the wave A of a more complex wave 2 which would then develop further and reach 50-61.8% or more retracement required.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77784&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199927923
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1524
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 8:44pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
GBPUSD Potential Scenario
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77786&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199929422
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1525
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 8:49pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
Tracking EURUSD Route
need to unload my long trade from 1.4718 @ BE or minimal LOSS
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
replaced chart to correct error on "v" position to sit beside "1"
EURUSD Progress....1107 HRS
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77790&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199929956 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77804&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199934063
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 9, 2008 10:01pm
Jan 9, 2008 10:09pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD jive
Notice the RED Box on the chart:
This is where I am looking at EURUSD potentially reversing
50% retrace of wave 1 @ 1.4690 ( Red FIB Retracement Tool )
FE 161.8 Projection of Wave C based on relationship with wave A @ 1.4696 ( Green FIB Extention Tool )
FE 61.8 Projection if a complex zigzagA + flatB + impulse C (Blue FIB Extention Tool )
Also within range where edge of channel is found for Guideline on channeling.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77812&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199934848
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1527
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 10:23pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD wave 4 Triangle
Triangle expected to finish on the 15min Chart of GBPUSD
Triangle is wave 4 followed by wave 5 to potentially end wave 3 of Bigger wave 5
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77814&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199935368
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1528
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 9, 2008 11:23pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD wave 5 of wave 3
A triple Top has formed which completes the Triangle for wave 4.
Price now DIPS for wave 5 of wave 3 down to 1.9522
To be followed by a Bounce for the bigger wave 4 towards :
FIB Retracement Levels:
23.6% @ 1.9594
38.2% @ 1.9639
50% @ 1.9675
61.8% @ 1.9711
1.9633 38.2% into the previous day's Range from below
1.9657 50% of previous Day's Range
1.9682 61.8% of previous day's range
1.9740 Daily Pivot Strong Resistance Level
1.9825 weekly Pivot ****
Sorry about the delay. I had to re type the whole text because I accidentally pressed the refresh button.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77830&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199938819 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77832&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199939138
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1529
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 12:06am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
GBPUSD
scalped during the US session to earn 9 pips
earlier had a Long GBPUSD trade. exited for -36pips
then traded the wave 5 after the triangle and exited for 20 pips
over all, have loss of only 7 pips on this pair
*** did not wait for the bounce off 1.9522
EURUSD
Exited half position of last nights long trade at equivalent to -16pips
Entered Short trade @ 1.4685 which looked like the end of an ENDING Diagonal Wave C of this corrective wave.
overall on EURUSD
+59pips
-16pips
-58pips (on 3 opposite trades :-19 long: -39 short)
It is still very possible for EURUSD to reach my RED BOX Target where a lot of projection levels converge and still nake a biger or longer ending Diagonal wave C. I may just exit the last Longtrade at that level.
Then we start with the Longer Wave 3 Down....
hhhmmmm sometimes I get confused as I am doing GBPUSD Counts too. So if you notice me off track, kindly give me a nudge...
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1530
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 1:03am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
1.4690 Achieved by EURUSD
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77857&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199944981
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 10, 2008 2:10am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD Development
EURUSD Development
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77869&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199949037
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1532
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 2:21am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Exited trade for 16 out of 24 pips total counted in 2 positions used as standard for trade size. Actual is 8 out of 12 pips per position x 2
exited because I counted 5 impulse waves already which signals a retracement.
waiting for new entry to sell again
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77872&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199949660
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1533
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 2:26am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Timing it on the 1minute chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77873&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199949954
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1534
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 2:47am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Further development on teh 1min chart for EURUSD
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77878&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199951217
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 10, 2008 3:48am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
more 1min charts on EURUSD
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77898&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199954900 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77899&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199954900
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1540
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 3:51am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
EG. still favor dowside with target 1.4530...correct???http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif
because i still keep sold EU with SL 4715,4750,last 4775
Yes adji04
We are now supposed to be in a Downtrend.
Downward direction Wave C.c.5.5.3.3 if I am not mistaken
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1541
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 3:58am
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Yes adji04
We are now supposed to be in a Downtrend.
Downward direction Wave C.c.5.5.3.3 if I am not mistaken
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
==
Thank's, EG we're same direction...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_hug.gif
are U graduated from elliotwave university...????
whatever U're nice tutor...
Thx,EG and for all FF
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1542
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 4:45am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
5min chart update on EURUSD
It could be that an Expanded Flat or Irregular FLAT has just developed for wave 2
Note that EW Counting on these lower timeframes are more for exercise in counting waves. It may not necessarily be beneficial in real time trading.
There could be simpler ways to scalp trades.
The effort exerted on these smaller timeframes should pay off sooner or later to allow us ease in counting waves in higher timeframes where we should really be trading from.
Learning EW takes a lot of time and Practice with dedication. Need I say PASSION too required. Otherwise, it willl be very difficult to understand. But a lot of practice and chart viewing and labelling hours are also needed.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77919&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199957950
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1543
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 5:57am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
IS it just me or does anybody else see this on the EURUSD
It is like every where I turn, I see triangles or what seem like triangles forming.
Here is what could be an ending diagonal wave C on the EURUSD
Watch it bounce or BREAKOUT to the downside....
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77942&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199963318
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 10, 2008 6:09am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1544
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 6:31am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Call me chicken if you want, But I bailed out on my 2 short trades that were last placed for combined profit of 13 pips.
Actually a second batch from today's top. But, I am getting mixed signals on my EW Counts and with the News coming around, I would rather come out with my combined pips of 13 and the 16 earlier.
Leaving another 2 trades running in opposite direction still. for a ratio of (1 Short and 0.5 Long ) net Loss if closed simultaeniously is -41 pips.
Update: I just realized It could also be a Leading Diagonal Wave 1 which means it can break out to the UPSIDE to retrace wave 1 for wave 2 not to exceed not to exceed 1.4823 then it will Fall for the Wave 3. Should it exceed 1.4823, then The Bull RUN most likely has Begun
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 10, 2008 7:02am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1545
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 7:16am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
I probably got this now...
Looks more like a LEADING Diagonal Wave 1 as structure looks like a 53535.
53535 Wave 1 or wave A
33333 Wave 4 or wave X or wave B
So if this is Leading Diagonal wave 1 then expect an upward move for the retracement for wave 2 around 61.8% @ 1.4750 or higher before it comes down again.
Most likely safer to enter a SHORT trade after sub wave 2 of the wave 3 down.
Otherwise a Long trade at the breakout above 1.4823
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77964&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199967607
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 10, 2008 8:20am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Still a possibility as if price goes higher than 1.4700 on EURUSD
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=77979&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199971185
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1548
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 8:37am
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
with reffered last EU chart
myself take long after 4715 break target TP 4750. today my sold position already closed (hit target-4730).
another scenario,i willtake sold if 4670 Didn't break with target 4500
and if 4700 break i will take buy target 4750...
thx,EG...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1549
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 10:13am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
adjusted Magenta trendlines to FIT the Leading Diagonal Wave 1 which abruptly completed with the news.
Now challenging the 61.8% retracement level for wave 2.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78019&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199978012
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1550
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 10:15am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by adji04 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
with reffered last EU chart
myself take long after 4715 break target TP 4750. today my sold position already closed (hit target-4730).
another scenario,i willtake sold if 4670 Didn't break with target 4500
and if 4700 break i will take buy target 4750...
thx,EG...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Looks like your Long Trades went well for you my friend.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1551
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 2:32pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
This price movement going up seems to me shows bias for EURUSD to be back on the BULL Trend.
I can not consider this as a corrective wave because Maximum C can be is 1.618 of A. This is already more than 2.618 of A. SO below FE 161.8 can be considered as ABC corrective wave. but if wave supposed to be "C" is more than FE 161.8, then this should be considered as wave 3 already and not wave C.
I would think that this is now part of a 12345 set of Impulse Waves
and most likely we have just seen the top of wave 3 @ 1.4813 and should be followed by at least a 23.6% retracement though normally by 38.2% for a wave 4.
On the argument that this could be a triangle 4th wave, structure needs to be 33333. that means 5 Zigzags in the triangle. I would say that considering this wave 4 as a triangle opens up a wider range for price to move as we could have a contracting triangle and even an expanding triangle. and a barrier triangle which would have different price leveles as limits.
Most likely, using the guide for diffrentiating an abc from a 12345 impulse wave would come very handy in trading the waves this time.
EGhttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78103&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1199993490
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1552
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 2:51pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar56736_1.gifBeartrade
Most Truth is rather dogmatic...
Member Since Dec 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/8kt.gif72 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif a question
Hi EG
Its been REALLY long time since ive done any work with EWT, but i have a question. As far as the wave relationships, shouldnt have wave one been much shorter? Its quite a bit shorter than wave 3 as you presented, so are we expecting a really short 5th?
Just trying to brush up
Thanks for the great thread
Lawrence a.k.a. The Bear
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1553
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 5:44pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beartrade http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi EG
Its been REALLY long time since ive done any work with EWT, but i have a question. As far as the wave relationships, shouldnt have wave one been much shorter? Its quite a bit shorter than wave 3 as you presented, so are we expecting a really short 5th?
Just trying to brush up
Thanks for the great thread
Lawrence a.k.a. The Bear
Hello Lawrence....
Which chart are you refering to and what post number is it in?
Anyway, as far as I know, among waves 1 3 and 5 the rule is that wave 3 cannot be the shortest.
Relationships can be illustrated as below :
w3 > w1 > w5
w3 > w1 = w5
w1 > w3 > w5
w5 > w3 > w1
But suppose to be never as below. But I think there was an exception. Let me just look for that because it just might be possible in a triangle with a throwover or throwunder. just not that sure now. Will get back to you a little later. Thank you for asking the question. Now I must find out and be sure....
w5 > w1 > w3
w1 > w5 > w3
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 10, 2008 6:01pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1554
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 5:56pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar56736_1.gifBeartrade
Most Truth is rather dogmatic...
Member Since Dec 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/8kt.gif72 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Post $1551
I was referring to the possible count starting at about 8:00cst this morning.
wave 1 1.4638 to 1.4747
wave 2 1.4747 to 1.4722
wave 3 1.4722 to 1.4787
and then we have the question of waves 4 and 5...
It really looks like a failed 5th to me, i know that is rare in the major pairs, but most of this today was emotion driven, imo... and the run just ran out of steam.
Like i said, im just trying to dust off my ewt http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
regards
Bear
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1555
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 5:58pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar56736_1.gifBeartrade
Most Truth is rather dogmatic...
Member Since Dec 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/8kt.gif72 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif forgot to finish my post... lol
and, the 5th wave failure, if i remember correctly, would match up with the rest of this unusual wave count, large first wave, moderate third, tiny or failed fifth.
Just food for thought
Thanks again
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1556
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 6:13pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar28436_15.gif4x_Trader
Risk Taker
Member Since Dec 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/5kt.gif615 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Nice inputs kabayan El Grande keep it up tol!http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1557
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 7:04pm
adji04
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
56 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
wave 4 or wave 5http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif..
myself pivot stay 4825.if 4825 broken, take buy target 4860 and if 4825 failed take sold taget 4750...
EG,last night after hit target 1.4750..i take another sold position with SL 4775..after a minutes market didn't respon to retrace down and my ISP lost connection too..http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/sad.gif
in a last minute, i closed position (-14), and today very surprise to me that EU going up 4825..
Thx, EG
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1558
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 7:21pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
2 scenarios for me on EURUSD
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78195&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200010849
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1559
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 7:42pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beartrade http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I was referring to the possible count starting at about 8:00cst this morning.
wave 1 1.4638 to 1.4747
wave 2 1.4747 to 1.4722
wave 3 1.4722 to 1.4787
and then we have the question of waves 4 and 5...
It really looks like a failed 5th to me, i know that is rare in the major pairs, but most of this today was emotion driven, imo... and the run just ran out of steam.
Like i said, im just trying to dust off my ewt http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
regards
Bear
Bear...
This was how I saw it...
Now in the chart previous to this post, my thought s are if it goes higher than 1.4813 then the triangle is a wave 4 and going up is wave 5.
But if it breaks out to the down side and goes lower than 1.4785, I would be inclined to believe that yes we had a failed wave 5 there and no triangle wave 4.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
okay I think I have to correct myself here as this breakdown may not just be a bear trend resumption but a wave 4 retracement down to 23.6 or to 38.2 %.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78205&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200012130
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 10, 2008 9:07pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Ok .... here goes
EURUSD Chart
First 3 wave sare classified as A or 1 ; B or 2 then C or 3
-if 2nd point exceeds origin of first point, then we rule out wave 1 and 2 as wave 2 never goes beyond origin of wave 1
-if 3rd point exceeds 1.618 of A, then we rule out wave C
Looking at the chart again and checking the price legs, we see 3rd point exceeding 1.618 of A.
Therefore, to me price is in a a set of impulsive waves 12345 and currently developing a wave 4.
Now why wave 4 still...
wave 4 is related to overall time it takes from w0 to w3 and is normaly expanding correctively sideways. Could be 23.6% retrace if trend very strong
or normally 38.2 - 50% normally
but can be till 61.8%
if more than 61.8% retracement of wave 3 occurrs, a failed 5th or truncated 5th follows
So first , time wise I think it is still in a 4th. so no failed 5th yet to my mind.
Structurally, looks more like it is making an expanded corrective FLAT which more likely will have a wave C = 1.618 of A. note ticked levels
Another thing about the failed 5th possibility is that, if we look at the internal structure of that leg, it does not look like a 5 wave impulse but a 3 wave structed wave. so it must be a wave B.
Hoping I covered the whole ground to narrow down probability of identifying the waves here.
ooopppps. more to add:
if price is in a wave 4 of a wave 3 , then it should be followed by a wave 5 of same degree. w1 of 3 looks extended and is longer than w3 of 3. so wave 5 of 3 must be shorter than wave 3 of 3.
this should then be followed by a retracement of the wave 3 to get the wave 4. ( It would look like 2nd guessing the markets to some ) However, since we have the rules of EWT, why not try to apply them with its full might and force http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif it at least gives you a probable scenario. ( it can still have turn out differently. but at least you have 1 scene where you have an ideal scenario based on applying the EW rules.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78242&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200017248
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 10, 2008 9:34pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1562
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 9:23pm
Learntocount
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
242 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
eg, Here's my take from the all time high under 150......abc down...a=c........ wave 1 up...wave two did not retrace as far as we thought...we were looking for another day or two of dollar strength for a deeper retrace, but we did get 38.2% which is the yellow line....now wave 3.......alternate count shows well on the 1 day but if you call the first abc down as an A then our B here will make the pattern an irregular flat as it goes above 150......price action will clarify....either option is up and buy dips.........BTW our initial drop is just past the 23.6% fibo for our wave 3 that took us to just under 150...that amount of retrace is acceptable during strong trends...which we have.....and that is why it does leave the door open for the alternate count to eventually do 38%........
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78247&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200018010
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1563
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 10, 2008 9:55pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Additional assumptions
since wave 3 shorter than wave 1, then wave 5 must be shorter than wave 3.
Taking a fib retracement tool to measure wave 3 size then moving fib tool to possible shortest end of wave 4 of 3, for possible maximum of wave 5 of 3, we get 1.4872 as target before it retraces wave 3 of higher degree for the wave 4 which should be in the range of 1.4819 down to 1.4756 before shooting b4 rallying for the wave 5 towards 150 or higher.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78260&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200020010
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 13, 2008 3:16am
FxMt
Member
Member Since Aug 2007
55 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif GBPJPY count
Hi EG & others,
what do you think about GBPJPY?
This is my count, I think we are currently finishing wC3 in a subwave (5)3, target the area 210,6/209,5 before we head for corrective C4 up ? What bothers me is that this (5)3 is unclear to me but I think we are not finished with it and C3 until 210/209 -ish.
EDIT: error in count, we are in C(3)53v, right ?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78698&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200212052 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78699&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200212076 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78700&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200212093
Last edited by FxMt, Jan 13, 2008 4:43am
Jan 13, 2008 4:45am
FxMt
Member
Member Since Aug 2007
55 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Error in count corrected
I noticed an error in my count, we are in C(3)53v, but iii is 361,8 extended !?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78705&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200217530
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1571
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 13, 2008 6:39pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
FxMt
Looks like our counts are basically the same on GBPJPY except for the pportion of my C333.
The C335 leg for me does not yet exhibit clear wave structures for a 12345 impulse 5th wave. So I only have projection for ppotential end which are FE 261.8 @ 210.71 and FE 300.0 @ 208.14
While based on the Guide;ine of Equalit, C335 or C33 could end @ 210.42
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
FxMt.....
I would appreciate it if you continue to post your GBPJPY or other pair EW charts here. Everyone is welcome to post their EW charts in this thread. This threadwas meant for EW discussion , that is why I placed this in the Discussion area and not in the Journal Division. So, keep those EW charts coming.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78790&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200267537 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=78791&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200267537
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1572
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 13, 2008 6:46pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
1.4811 now.
Looking for a possible pullback/ retracement from 1.4818 (for wave2 )which was Fridays closing high.
If price breaks 1.4818 now, this is most likely to continue higher as it develops wave 3. otherwise I would look for a pull back towards 1.4708 which is the 61.8% retracement
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
on second thought, if this is wave 2 now B @ 1.4815 is too close to what could be the origin of A @ 1.4818. This means for C=100A (1.4770) and C=A1.618 (1.4742) .
If it goes lower than that still, then the move down from 1.4818 becomes an impulse wave structure instead of a corrective wave.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1573
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 14, 2008 5:00am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD and EURUSD
Ending Diagonal 5 to finish wave C down.
Followed by a reversal. now looking for a 5 wave impulse UP then a 3 wave pull back, so we can trade the wave C or 3 going UP.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. EURUSD ma be in for a wave 2 retrace now toward 1.4798 or lower towards 1.4767 or 1.4737.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1574
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 14, 2008 12:01pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Targets from Monday Asian Session
Asian Monday session:
GBPJPY Targets for the end of wave 3 within wave 3 of a wave C down:
Based on Fib Extention:
FE 261.8 210.71 achieved @ 210.71 to the pip on my chart
FE 300.0 208.14
Based on Wave Equality
w5 = w1 210.42
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1575
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 14, 2008 8:24pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD scenario
Applying Reasoning and Logic based on the Rules and Guidelines.
Let us see if GBPUSD will respect the EW Rules and Guidelines..... Unless it is my understanding of these which is flawed....
Price was lowest at 1.9481. if we consider C = A 1.618, then price has just exceeded this by a few pips. ( to me it is not substantial to disregard its being end of C.
2nd is, if this is to be considered as a wave 3 and not as a wave C, I think the rule that a triangle can not be found at the end of a wave 3 will be broken.
Another thing is the 53535 structure which this triangle sports.
Therefore, I would be more inclined to consider this as an ending diagonal wave 5 of a wave C, which would then lead me to be bias that GBPUSD has had its corrective bottom at 1.9481.
If my reasoning or logic is flawed, kindly help me out on this one.
EGhttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79106&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200360230 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79108&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200360230
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 15, 2008 1:26am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD and EURUSD
Possibly an Expanded flat wave 2 for the GBPUSD on the 15min chart
And possibly with the EURUSD too on the 15min chart
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79163&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200378357 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79165&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200379011
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 15, 2008 1:37am Reason: additional chart
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1579
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 15, 2008 2:04am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD wave 5 Projections based on wave 1
EURUSD wave 5 Projections based on wave 1
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79180&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200380616 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79181&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200380616 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79182&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200380633
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 15, 2008 5:59am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD Charts
EURUSD Charts
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79246&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200394614 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79247&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200394614 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79248&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200394679 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79249&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200394679
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1582
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 15, 2008 6:24pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
EURUSD topping at 1.4921 last night then tumbling down to 1.4775 now...... tht was a huge fall.
This was the scenario I found on my chart when I got up this morning after I left my trade running last night during the US session. Trade running was the trade entered the previous day which got dragged down right after I entered it and saw it recover and turn slightly positive during the News last night. Then I left it to RUN only to find it back and in a deeper pit right now.
It was very tempting to add on to my position last night and re-enter my GBPUSD Long after the news as that looked very encouraging to my GBPUSD and EURUSD Long trades. But I held back trying to practice self control.... and that did it. I was able to sleep and not have to watch my trades.
now... 4hr chart for EURUSD attached shows several Support lines in Magenta and the final one is Yellow. EW count would show that wave 3 looks like it has already been achieved @ 1.4921. This fall may be considered as corrective wave 4.
Although it has already overlapped with wave 1 and 2, it may still be viable as wave 4 if what is developing is an ending diagonal wave 5 to follow wave 4 of this decline.
Another alternative count is to consider tha finished 123 as an abc instead for the wave B of bigger wave 4 in a FLAT corrective wave in the Daily chart.
And EURUSD may be headed back to 1.4309 or lower.
Right now I am still holding my long trade from 1.4903
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79419&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200439393 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79421&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200440159
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Jan 15, 2008 6:36pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1583
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 15, 2008 6:31pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD Alternative Count on Daily
This alternative count could see EURUSD in a further sideways expanding corrective wave on the Daily.
which could bring it back to
1.4309 or lower like
1.4235
1.3985
1.3840
1.3581
See attached chart for this alternative scenario.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79420&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200439875
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1584
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 15, 2008 6:46pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
or could this wave 4 corrective wave for an ending diagonal wave 5 of a higher degree be over?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79424&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200440748
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 15, 2008 6:57pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD Bulls could be Back
Looking at this 30min chart having:
double bottom at 1.4774
Zigzag 3 wave structure
A breach/piercing @ 1.4850 could indicate some more upward move. But a break ( which is a candle opening and closing above that would find greater probability of Bulls being back for this pair.
However, a pierce or a break @ 1.4774 could signal more trouble for the bulls as this would mean a 5 wave decline has has been seen and we could see a 3 wave pu;;;back Up then it would be followed by a much larger fall for a wave C or a wave 3.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79426&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200441443
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1586
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 15, 2008 7:48pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Here is something I picked up from the Trading room where LTC has his EW Thread.
I did not realize this set up till he brought it up there.
So aside from my alternative counts which are now dwarfed by what he proposed, This EURUSD fall from last night could actually be wave 2 inside a bigger wave 3.
My retrace levels are at
50% @ 1.4780
61.8% @ 1.4727
76.4% @ 1.4706
100% @ 1.4638
1.4638 is the maximum that wave 2 can retrace wave 1 so SL will be set @ 1.4637 or right below that Big wave 2.
Thank you Tim for sharing.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79440&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200444461
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1587
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 15, 2008 7:56pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
wave 32 (wave 5 end of C) Potential levels are ticked on the chart:
261.8% @ 1.4761
300.0% @ 1.4750
425.0% @ 1.4713
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79442&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200444994
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1588
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 15, 2008 9:55pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
charts
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79463&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200452051 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79464&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200452051
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1589
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 15, 2008 10:58pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
EURUSD continues to recover from that fall from 1.4921
Taking the wave 2 inside a big wave 3 direction:
- 1st I considered this first leg going up as the wave 4. However it has now overlapped with my wave 1.
But looking at the internal structure, price @ 1.4850 has probably topped a wave c inside wave 4 or a wave 3 for the pair to move on with recovery.
Currently 1.4851 is the is the FE 161.8 of A so it still fits into a wave C theory. Up till FE 176.8 @ 1.4856 for me is ok.
Although this wave 4 has already overlapped with wave 1, which is possible still for me if I expect an ending diagonal triangle to form as wave C.
But should this be a 123 instead of an abc, then a wave 4 pullback would be a good entry point for me to add to my Long trade.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79482&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200455868 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79483&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200455868
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 15, 2008 11:26pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
EURUSD
wave 2 was a Corretive FLAT. expecting wave 4 to be a zigzag or a triangle based on the rule of altrernation.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79495&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200457546
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #1592
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 16, 2008 1:32am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
watch the symmetrical triangle form with its 33333 5-wave structure.
wave 5 up on this 5min chart is potentially the height of the triangle positioned where the breakout is expected.
possible wave 5 end is at 1.4876.
Then a wave 2 retrace is expected in this time frame which I would look forward to towards 1.4813 / 25.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79544&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200465125
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1593
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 16, 2008 1:54am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
wow I was faked there...
I was looking at for the completion of a triangle which looked perfect
then thought it was just a throwunder
then now it looks like the Zigzag option which is still valid
for the zigzag to play out, maximum is at 1.814/10 which is FE 161.8 - 176.8
I exited my short trade at a loss while at the bottom of the triangle for what was supposed to be the last leg of the 5 wave structure.
Entry for LONG should have been at the breakout to the upside of the triangle.
But since this is a zigzag now, it is now I believe a good time to enter a Long trade on EURUSD. SL 1 pip below origin of wave 1 ( 1.4774) which is
@ 1.4773
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79550&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200466302
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 17, 2008 12:01am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
Here is the Medium to Longer Term View on EURUSD.
Price has breeched a lot of the supports to maintain potential counts that where Bullish.
Right now, this count on the Daily is the only 1 remaining in my options.
Note that there are 3 ticked levels which I use as standard targets when using the FIB Extention tool.
I am not planning to enter any trades on EURUSD yet. I will most probably wait for the next BULL trend before entering.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79849&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200546101
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1604
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 17, 2008 12:04am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
Here are the Alternatives:
I
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79850&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200546264
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1605
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 17, 2008 12:38am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
Attached is a wave count Potential for the Wave C 1st level ( abc projection/extention ) which looks like it would end at an FE 61.8 coinciding with an internal projection within wave C using w012 and coming up with wave 5 at FE 261.8 and FE 300.0.
Although this may not really fit into a triangle situation. if it does make that 5 wave move down, then it could just be leg A and expect a retrace Up for X then another leg down for C towards FE 100 or FE 161.8
Fort the Triangle to pan out, there was to be 5 waves all having a 3 wave structure (33333 - overall structure)
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=79854&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200548276
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 19, 2008 11:27pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by LadyofMusic1 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I just found your forum today. But as I have been examining the EUR/USD count on my own this week, I saw the double top we had (which did not make a new high) as a big sign that we were not going up in the short term. I think your ABC scenario makes sense with what the chart is showing. Let's see how it pans out.
Welcome to the thread LadyofMusic1. You are encouraged to post and share your charts here whenever you want.
For the EURUSD, You can see that there are several options for the continued expansion of wave 4 on the hourly charts up to the weekly charts.
The first is the possibility of having a wave 4 triangle in the form of a 33333 structure where at least 2 legs now form part of that triangle and the 3rd one looks like still in the b wave inside the C wave. Wave a leg of the wave C down seems to have completed the 5 waves down to 1.4602 and has expanded sideways on the 1 hr chart. It is most likely that price will go down towards 1.4422 which is the Magenta lower side of the triangle you see on the 4hr and Daily Chart.
But a break of that lower side could lead to the formation of a Corrective FLAT or if lower still, could result in a zigzag.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=80589&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200803024 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=80591&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200803148 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=80592&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200803148 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=80593&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200803169
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 20, 2008 5:04pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Will we see a rally on Monday?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=80678&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200866554
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...
Jan 21, 2008 12:25am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Corrective Wave Patterns_Summarized Form Part 1
Based on Figures gathered from Elliott Wave International reference material.
Attached is a summarized form of corrective wave patterns. There are still some variations specially on the complex side. But I will try to gather some more so I can post them here.
The summary below can be sued as a reference in my assessment of the EURUSD potential direction.
As you can see in my Daily and 4hour charts even from Last Friday yet before that plunge, Price assessment was considered to be in the downward direction and there were 4 suggested potential patterns.
Basically, we had a 3wave structure for the 1st leg A from 1.4966 down to 1.4309. So if you look @ the possible options for a cortrective wave , we cannot have the basic zigzag because the wave A leg should be in 5 waves and this is only 3 waves.
So the next option is the Flat or the triangle. But technically we can not have the flat because wave 2 was already a flat .
Then that leaves us with the triangle option which as you will see would fit into the the pattern that has 3 waves for the wave "a" then now we see 3 waves up for the wave "b". As for the succeeding waves which should all be in 3 wave structures also, we will have to see 3 more ( waves c d and e ) then a breakout from the triangle.
In my Daily and 4hour chart , first you will see the Running Flat. I expected that first just incase price forms a 3 wave structure down from 1.4921 down to somewhere around 1.4561 which was the FE 200.00 from 1.4921 then bounce to go higher than 1.4921. That would have been a running FLAT.
However, Price has continued to form and finish 5 waves down to 1.4589 then retraced and expanded sideways which could now form wave C down after it finished the waves A and B.
Which is why I am nect looking at price bouncing off either of those 2 magenta trendlines which were constructed using Low points on the left side of the chart. FE 300.00 @ 1.4413 falls near the level of 1 of the magenta trendlines for the triangle.
If high of 1.4714 is considered as the end of an X wave and if I see 5 waves are formed going down towards FE 300.0 @ 1.4413 and bouncing off that magenta trendline, then next to look for are 2 more legs which 1st would bounce up to the upper side of the visualized triangle then another bounce backdown to the lower nagenta line to complete what is possibly the 5 legs of the triangle.
I would trade a breakout at the top side of the triangle for my Long trade.
However, if price from 1.4714 continues to go down and breaksout to the downside of 1.4413 , it is more likely that a triangle is off the table and a more complex corrective wave may be forming or even a bigger zigzag wave which could see price going towards 1.4267 or even lower towards 1.3862 or even 1.3208 based on the FIB Projection using the relationship of wave C to wave A.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
A Flat will most likely not be seen because of the Rule of Alternation
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=80735&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200893086
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Jan 21, 2008 4:11am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
Looking/Waiting for the C leg of the Triangle
Moved initial TP down to 1.4430
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=80786&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200906606
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1627
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 21, 2008 12:31pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
to finish a sub wave 5 of wave c within a bigger wave C, price needs to dip some more towards the lower edge of the proposed triangle.
if a bounce occurs, it could be wave D.
but if a breakout occurs and not just a breech, then price may continue to go down to fullfil a FLAT or a more complex wave 4
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=80875&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200936734
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1628
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 22, 2008 3:45am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
No clear breakout yet from the Triangle set up.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=81041&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200991534
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#1629
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Jan 22, 2008 5:15am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar20353_2.gifkevmcfoster
Jai Shewaramani
Member Since Sep 2006
82 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
trying to make sense of all the nonsense
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=81057&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1200996899
__________________
It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
To be the Best, you have to beat the Rest!!!
It doesn't matter what you know, it's how you use it...