Oct 15, 2007 10:46pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif 15m
wave 2 of wave c down
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=55861&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192502801
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 15, 2007 11:49pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif B wave looks like it is Expanding
Attaching new chart to show expansion of b wave
Targetting 239.85 FE 100.0 to have at least C=A in a Zigzag B wave. It could go as high as 240.42 at the FE 161.8 level.
Then I would expect it to go down for the wave c to complete the wave 2 retracement inside bigger wave 3 up.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=55868&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192506238 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=55870&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192506493
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#791
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 16, 2007 10:20am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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Lower than 237.40 Invalidated my EW Count in GBPJPY.]
EG
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 16, 2007 8:06pm
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#792
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 17, 2007 8:35am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
We may have seen the top of Big Wave B @ 240.66
I am attaching a chart which I see as having conformed with EW Rules to complete a 5 wave structure sub wave c inside the big wave B UP.
This means that this pair is heading south and the move from 235.74 going up now @ 238.41 is a retracement of a subwave 1 down of the Big QWave C down. Retracement is wave 2 up and may go as high as 240.66 @ 100% retracement.
If price goes higher than 240.66..... this means that we are now on Wave 3 UP inside the sub wave c up of the big wave B UP.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56264&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192624480 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56265&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192624480 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56266&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192624494
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#793
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 18, 2007 2:59am
money
Multiple Usernames
Member Since Jul 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif106 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif gbp_usd
my analysis on gbp/usd, and i think that gbp will go higher.
Nice day!!
4h_chart
http://www.trading-fx.si/forum/privatslike/ScreenHunter_09.gif
1h_chart
http://www.trading-fx.si/forum/privatslike/ScreenHunter_10.gif
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#794
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 18, 2007 9:47pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
Hey money....
Thank you for posting your EW Charts here.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#795
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 18, 2007 9:49pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Update
my current Count
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56866&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192758546 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56867&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192758546 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56868&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192758565 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56869&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192758565
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56870&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192758584 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56871&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192758584
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 18, 2007 11:29pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
another chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56888&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192764564
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 18, 2007 11:51pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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ending diagonal triangle?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56894&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192765901
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#799
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 18, 2007 11:56pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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revised chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56896&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192766160
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#800
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 12:15am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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more charts for potential moves
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56901&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192767291 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56902&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192767291
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#801
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 12:18am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
waiting for a break of the lower side of the Andrew's Pitchfork.
Otherwise we may be headed higher
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56903&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192767465
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#802
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 12:32am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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50% in time and 50% retracement for the AP values
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56907&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192768318
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 19, 2007 6:03am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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adjusted my wave 3 yellow
missed to take profit on that last dive. still holding my short now and actually added at 235.79
yelllow wave 4 possible from 38.2 to 50% retracement 236.12 to 236.52 but not higher than 236.64 or wave 1 yellow.
if it goes higher than 236.64, then my count is invalid. will need to close my shorts at a loss
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56958&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192787941
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #804
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 6:06am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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15m
got a bit late here. spike occurred
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56960&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192788357
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#805
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 6:11am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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trendline_daily
Pitchfork
Fib retracement and projection
EW
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56962&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192788706
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#806
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 6:19am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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236.55 high as of now
invalid count if goes higher than 236.64
236.73 high now has invalidated my count.
this could be prep for longer term move UP. will need to work on my counts again
EG
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56964&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192789100
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#807
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 6:33am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar14647_1.gifpeekaboo
Member
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43 Posts
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oh no....have to recount....
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#808
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 7:28am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Current limit to still consider a Big Wave C down is up to 238.78.
This would mean that we are just in the wave 2 inside wave 3 down of the big wave C Down.
So this could be considered as just a retracement.
IMHO.... the break of the daily trend line can be considered as the start of the decline for this pair and what we are seeing as an upmove now is but a retracement.
So 238.78 is limit for move up to still consider the continuation of the move down for wave 3.
Currently waiting on the sidelines now.
Closed my short trades (2) at a loss.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=56985&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192793297
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#809
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2007 8:43am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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presenting another 30m chart
maybe someone will find something useful in it
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57018&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192797771
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#810
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 20, 2007 7:58am
FxMt
Member
Member Since Aug 2007
55 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif Just another count
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
presenting another 30m chart
maybe someone will find something useful in it
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
EG, I still have this count on the table...
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57240&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192881456 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57242&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192881822
Oct 20, 2007 12:02pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FxMt http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
EG, I still have this count on the table...
Hey FxMt..
Yes your ABC Count is still possible. If you look at the charts I attach with the trendlines on it on 4h, 1h and 15m charts, I would say that wave 5 of this wave C down would be near the level of that support trendline 234.60 or could even fall below that.
On the other hand, I am still not removing from the table that it is still possible that we could be in the wave 3 down of the wave c down.
As you can see from my posts, I do not base my analysis on EW alone. I keep an open mind using other tools to supplement my EW Analysis and price direction Analysis.
I consider Trendline breakouts specially in the higher timeframes important like this 4h trendline Support Breakout. To me, this could signal a confirmation that this pair is going south big time.
However, we also see a falling wedge which could also mean that we have a bullish continuation trend.
A falling wedge theory count of 12345 should have seen a breakout to the north after the 5th count. But instead it has gone south again to probably kiss the lower side of the wedge again to make the 8th count.
So to me, considering all this now, I would say that a 123 or an ABC count for this south move which started around 240.66 level is still possible. We could continue going south if this is a 123 of a 5 wave impulse wave c. Or we could wait for wave c down to finish its wave 5 in this zigzag ABC from 240.66
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS.
I am attaching a series of charts where I drew support and resistance trendlines, ew labels on different TFs, fib retracements.
I am putting them on separate charts to minimize confusion for those trying to look at these charts. I am more used to having all these tools in just 1 or just a few charts so I can see them in just 1 place. But I understand that these could confuse many.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57274&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192896047 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57275&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192896047 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57276&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192896068 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57277&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192896068
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57278&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192896132
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #812
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 20, 2007 12:34pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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Hey FxMt
We have an EW Count Difference on the 4h chart. While you have just an abc for the b wave inside the big wave B up, I have a flat and a triangle.
I am not saying that my count is better than yours but just trying to point out to the new ones here about this difference.
To be honest, I am still unclear and not so fully convinced with that complex wave labelling I did. I just feel and think that I am not breaking any EW Rules with this count. Unless someone could please point out to me here if I have violated any EW Rule I would appreciate hearing from someone who sees an EW Rule violation in my count.
I am currently up 93 pips on my demo account. but still a long way off from recovering from that loss I suffered after closing my 2 short trades on that last move up to 237.00 I exited those trades for a total of 272 pips.
Too bad I exited both at once. I was not too clear with my count on 32 and 33 yellow which promted me to decide to cut my losses.
So for now, I will be looking at what happens on the market open on Asian Monday.
Incidentally, I was just trying to check Potential wave 5 projection of the your wave c down or my potential wave 3 down using the fib projection/extention tool.
And what do I get here?.....
We see that wave 3 aqua is bery near the FE 161.8 level
When I use this tool to project wave 5, I would normally look for the FE 261.8 to FE 300.00 That is 232.46 - 231.62
On the otherhand, if my reversal stand holds, then my wave 3 projection is in the area of 230.97 - 229.13 Blue EW Labels 123
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57279&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192898042 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57280&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192898042 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=57281&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192898056
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 21, 2007 10:12pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Here is something to think about.
I was reviewing my guidelines and was looking at the limits for Wave C projection because up to now I can not "fix" the Aqua wave 4?
BAsed on the guideline a wave c which is more than 161.8% of wave is more likely to be in an impulsive pattern rather than in a corrective pattern.
This means that if this move down exceeds 230.97 (161.8% of wave A blue ) then this is more likely to be a wave 3 which would bring us tio the tthe target range of up to 229.13
We would then see a retracement of around 38.2% up.
So now I have 2 overlapping guidelines:
the Projection for wave c in a Zigzag wave 2 and
the Retracement limit for a Zigzag wave 2
The earliest signal will be the higher than 161.8% retracement which is that of going lowe rthan 230.97
Butthe clearest signal that we are in the long term bear move is if price goes lower than 229.72
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59330&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193019073 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59331&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193019073
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #817
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2007 8:18am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Here is something to think about.
I was reviewing my guidelines and was looking at the limits for Wave C projection because up to now I can not "fix" the Aqua wave 4?
BAsed on the guideline a wave c which is more than 161.8% of wave is more likely to be in an impulsive pattern rather than in a corrective pattern.
This means that if this move down exceeds 230.97 (161.8% of wave A blue ) then this is more likely to be a wave 3 which would bring us tio the tthe target range of up to 229.13
We would then see a retracement of around 38.2% up.
So now I have 2 overlapping guidelines:
the Projection for wave c in a Zigzag wave 2 and
the Retracement limit for a Zigzag wave 2
The earliest signal will be the higher than 161.8% retracement which is that of going lower than 230.97
Butthe clearest signal that we are in the long term bear move is if price goes lower than 229.72
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Lowest so far has been 230.31 that clears the first signal.
waiting for the second signal at 229.71 which is just 50 pips down the last low.
then I am more confident that this is going to lower than 219.31
But we should be looking at a corrective wave 4 before the long plunge.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#818
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2007 8:36am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Based on my EW Count,
Pair is due for a corrective wave 4 which I believe was validated by the 15m pinbar that reached 230.31 on my chart.
I am looking for it to retrace towards the 38.2 - 50% of wave 3 ( 233.33 - 234.26.
But if you note on the chart I posted below 233.90 is at the 61.8% level if the move from the origin of my wave c inside the big wave B up @ 240.66
minimum target will be towards 233.33 before this proceeds with the wave 5 aqua going down to complete the blue wave 3 which is in the range of 231 - 229.16
By the way, I get reminded that I am looking forward to a wave 4 . thios means that I should also be looking at the wave 4 to end very near the level of the sub wave 4 of the previous wave 3 and this sub wave 4 of wave 3 ended at 234.42 which is between the 50% and 45% fibo retracement of wave 3.
So a better TP to look forward to is at the 50% level retracement at 234.26 for those brave enough to believe this count.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59467&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193056358
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#819
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2007 7:16pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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0707 Asia
GBPJPY
Based on my EW count, there is still potential to go up for this pair to complete the 5 wave impulse of the wwave c up.
Wave 4 down may still be completing.
So as this pair goes up, I will be looking towards the 38.2% level @ 233.33
Note that a Guideline I use for projecting C is by looking for the 61.8, 100 and 161.8% relationship to wave a.
looking aT THE LAST 15M CHART, we see here the 61.8 was surpassed but did not look subjectively correct to be considered as a mature retracement.
the continued expansion of the corrective weave seem near mature to go up and complete it now
And by looking and making a micro ew count down to the 1minute chart, it would look like irt is still finishing its wave 4 down on the 1minute chart.
so the wave 5 up could either land on the TP1 or go further up to TP2.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59636&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193094973 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59637&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193094973 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59638&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193094993 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59639&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193094993
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59640&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193095007
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 22, 2007 7:39pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Long Targets for GBPJPY
Based on Wave 4 Rules:
Maximum target is at the end of previous wave 1 @ 236.64. However, this is over 261.8% of wave a already for this wave c.
Like I mentioned earlier, maximum relationship between wave a and wave c is 161.8%. Meaning, wave c can only be up to 161.8% of wave a. if wave c is more than 161.8% of wave a, then this is not a corrective wave any more but an iompulse wave.....
and this means that there is a trend reversal.
However, the higher time frame has already broken the wave c to wave a relationship by exceeding 161.8% so over all the trend is still going down.
But should this relationship / guideline be violated here, then I would look at it as a development of a much bigger wave pattern for this pair to go down.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59649&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193096318
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #821
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2007 9:25pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Well.... my MT4 platform is not moving. but I can see from my broker which is not on mT4 that gb[jpy has already moved up.
now my dilemna is I can not see the 5 wave impulse formation of this wave 5 up for me to see if it has reached its top.
so I am throwing these charts out so who ever wants to use it can find some use for it.
I still favor a top within the 50% - 38% retracement up. But not that it is possible to be just higher than 23.6%.
This means any time soon for as long as a 5 wave impulse pattern is formed up from the wave 4 in the 1 minute chart, then this could be the top or the end of the wave 4 which is the corrective wave.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59666&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193102558 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59667&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193102558 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59668&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193102574
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#822
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2007 10:45pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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My mt4 platform is still not updating. it is stuck at 231.82
My non mt4 broker already shows price at 233.10.
I am wary to trade this as I prefer to trade the SHORT Trade instead of the Long trade for now.
Just looking at the java based platform chart of gbpjpy instead of mt4, it looks like a triangle was formed for the wave 4 and now we are on our way to finishing the wave 5 of this wave c up.
move down to 232.93 to 233.12 looks like a sub wave 4 of the wave 3 up inside this wave 5.
So I will be watching this wave 5 unfold and then place my short trade.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#823
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2007 11:44pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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my mt4 is still not updating
currently using fibo group. but I also can not connect to windsor, MIG, and alpari_uk, ibfx and pfg-fx
am I the only one having this problem?
price is now at 233.28 in my non mt4 broker
I still can not decide if this is the top yet. but probably not yet since it still looks like just a wave 3
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#824
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2007 11:58pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
Senior Member
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Usd Chf
Longer-Term Views
----------------------------
Daily Bars ................
( Double click on chart to enlarge )
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59703&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193111890
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#825
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2007 12:11am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59704&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193112659
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 23, 2007 12:24am
el grande
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w4 limit was broken on the previous non mt4 chart.
am trying to see if there was already a completion of the 5 wave impulse of this wave 3 up then a smal wave 4 then wave 5 as reason for this break.
resulting to probably the continued downward movement of price.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59705&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193113448 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59706&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193113448 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59707&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193113463
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #827
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2007 12:42am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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with the former wave 1 break for the wave 4 causing my count to be invalid,
attached chart has been modified following EW Rules.
It looks like we are still building up for a bigger wave c up which could have a high probability of hitting TP 2 at the 50% retracement level at 234.38
A harmonic pattern has already formed on the 15m chart with a maximum @ 233.97 which is also close to the Daily 5SMA
234.38 is also previous days HIGH.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59710&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193114395
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#828
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2007 12:55am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Breached again
May have to go back to previous count as what was supposed to be wave c has exceeded 161.8 relationship to wave a.
So looking at considering 233.27 as the top of wave c now.
I would consider as a confirmation for the continued move down if price breaches the secong red line which is supposed to be the End of the revised wave 1
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59712&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193115256
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#829
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2007 1:14am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Possibility of a truncated 5th wave
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59717&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193116441
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#830
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2007 3:25am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Something I noticed just now.
Coincidence?
1 hour chart shows a precise 161.8% relationship of wave c or 3 to wave a or 1.
1 minute chart also shows the same precise percentage relationship on the current wave structure.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59739&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193124184 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59740&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193124184
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 23, 2007 7:11am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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looking at a revised wave count again.
Now seeing a leading diagonal triangle
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59815&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193137861
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #832
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2007 7:15am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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follow up chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59819&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193138114
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#833
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2007 10:14am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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i have adjusted my EW count again.
Looking for a more suitable count to fit the rules.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59890&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193148825 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59891&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193148825 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=59893&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193148859
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#834
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 2:37am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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sorry . I got delayed posting this because was replying to some posts.
Will reverse the order of presenting charts
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60100&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193207808 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60101&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193207808 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60102&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193207830 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60103&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193207830
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60104&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193207863 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60105&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193207863
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 24, 2007 4:24am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Current Update on GBPJPY.
I am looking at a possible retracement toward the Boxed Range for wave 4
Values of projected range using Fib retracement and extention tool in relation to EW.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60135&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193214264
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #836
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 4:30am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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get ready for the southern move
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60136&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193214595
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#837
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 4:53am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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next potential target for retracement in RED box. otherwise this will continue to go down
a bit wary because of that triangle that formed at the end of that price candlesticks
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60146&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193215973
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#838
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 4:57am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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continuing trend
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60149&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193216218
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#839
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 5:26am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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so bad. got stopped out on a trade.
it went for the 2nd level in the yellow box. or trying to get there toward 235.11
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60157&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193217944
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#840
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 5:37am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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adjusted 1m chart for the breakdown of wave 4
Using fib extention tool for c= a*61.8%
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60160&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193218587
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 24, 2007 7:01am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Sub wave 1 of the bigger wave 5 down could be finishing in the boxed range in RED.
Then we expect a retrace up by at least 61.8%
Note FE Levels in Box
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60191&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193223649
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #842
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 7:55am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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revised
update
2nd chart was after that spike so had to re adjust count
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60205&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193225823 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60213&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193226889
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#843
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 1:35pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
on with the charts for GBPJPY
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60309&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193247305 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60310&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193247305 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60311&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193247318
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#844
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 3:03pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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minor adjustment and off we go to continue move northward
that shook me a bit. made a retrace for nearly 88.6% again for the wave b.
why 235.47? that is because Ihave noticed that GBPJPY like 76.4 up to 88.6 Fib Level as targets for wave 2 retracement.
Besides it is a level that is likely to fit the rules still and not invalidate the higher TF Wave 4 which must not go higher than 235.85
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60320&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193252410
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#845
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 3:21pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Stoploss movev to wave 2 of this move upwards around 233.48.
since we have points 0 1 and 2. and we see that price has gone over FE 100.0, this means this is a continuing impulsive wave were wave 3 is longer than wave 1 and is will not be the shortest.
have a better chance now of attaining our target.
actual limit of a possible wave 4 retrace is up to end of wave 1 @ around 233.78
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60324&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193253619
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#846
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 3:34pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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since wave 4 retrace seem to have been established at 233.85, this means that wave 3 is just slightly more than 100% of wave a. and if my memory has npt failed me, wave 5 target would now be around FE 176.4.
Unlike if wave 3 landed @ FE 161.8 then wave 5 will be at 261.8
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#847
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 3:38pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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unless 233.79 is breached..
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60326&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193254642
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 24, 2007 3:47pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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SL was at 233.48 that is arounf the wave 2 end.
price has breached the end of wave 1. then this cannot be wave 4.
it can then be wave 2 inside the wave 3 which furthe means that this wave 3 is going to be big. and will have a better chance of targetting FE 161.8 to FE 200.0 and finally wave 5 towards 235.41 @ FE 261.8 and near the 88.6% retracement.
you can see all the fibs on my chart... that is if you know what you are looking for.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS
already missed bagging 50 pips because I was experimenting on the SL adjustment for trailing SL.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60328&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193255171
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #849
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 5:57pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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on our way up
got out eaarlier as was getting tired of waiting and getting very sleepy.
but got back in near end of 32. so still ok.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60350&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193262985
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#850
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 7:46pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
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Gbp/Usd
-----------------------------
Serious Resistance
Will Price Break through all this ?
-------------------------------------------
Double click on chart to enlarge
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60371&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193269589
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#851
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 8:24pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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I am still biased For my current long trade which is already down by 38 pips plus 18 pip spread.
but attaching some charts which could work out both in the short tern and most probably in the long term.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60383&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193271854 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60384&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193271854 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60385&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193271868
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#852
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 9:27pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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I have to revise the wave count for the wave 2 up.
I was looking out for a wave a subdivided into 5 waves but with the large retracement that has occurred, the next logical thing to do is to check and revise the wave count.
So now we have a 3 wave wave A and the wave B already finished... we have a better chance of going up npw to finish of this wave 2 UP.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60406&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193275656
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#853
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 10:30pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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update
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60427&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193279401
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#854
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2007 10:54pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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quite taxing to do Micro EW.
But it is fast and the experience of adjusting wave counts just to keep up is a very challenging thing to do.
it is like a marathon APPLIED EW Course ( Self Study plus help from other EW Practicioners )
Attaching new count or adjusted in the 1 minute chart. This will be valid ones 233.35is breached
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60431&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193280803
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#855
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 25, 2007 2:06am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Exited 2 live trades at a loss because I have to leave and I do not want to leave trades running when I am not around.
Back to Breakeven after increasing capital by 80% this week.
for as long as price does not go lower than 232.83. wave b of this wave 2 up is still valid based on attached chart.
whew... looks like I should truxt my counts more. anyway I have to go now. back at US session.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60463&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193292335
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 25, 2007 8:07am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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entering Long trade at 234.18 area where wave 5 up for the top of wave c up of this wave 2 in this wave 5 down.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60568&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193314267
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 25, 2007 8:11am Reason: add chart
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #857
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 25, 2007 8:34am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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as chart develops
Lowest was at 233.86 just a little over 86% retracement of wave 3 and in the vicinity of sub wave 4 of previous wave 3 of same degree.
Wave 2 target at 86% near 235.40
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60574&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193315340 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60576&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193315437 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60578&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193315679
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#858
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 25, 2007 8:39am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Possible wave 4 end?
then expect wave 5 going UP now to maximum of 235.85
Beyond 235.85...... my wave count is invalidated
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60581&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193315960
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#859
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 25, 2007 9:06am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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wave 2 retrace of wave 1 and back going UP
or 127.0 @ 234.09?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60587&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193317594
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#860
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 25, 2007 9:19am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Wave 53 or wave 3 projection is between FE 161.8 to 200.00
In this case I will use another technique where a previous retracement of 61.8% will yield a projection of FE 176.4
So first TP is at 235.20 then we expect a retracement for wave 54 or wave 4.
We will see percentage of retracement from there and then project wave 55.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60590&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193318342
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 25, 2007 9:56am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Southern Trip from here on.
I failed to recognized limits of each wave earlier. I think I made a mistake.
I still have a long way to go learning EW.
Note how wave 3 and wave 5 projections using the fib extention tool still falls within expected range as we use Points 0 1 and 2
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60598&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193320561
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 26, 2007 4:45am
HonaForex
UPPARA TRADER
Member Since Dec 2006
314 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Swissy ........long
Swissy worth going long with risk of 50 pips..........here is my chart & we r in wave 3 i believe.....
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=60883&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193388311
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Oct 26, 2007 3:25pm
money
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif USD-JPY
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Glad to see you posting your counts again money. keep them coming. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
I have a question re your chart. I am missing something on your wave B Black on the lower right corner of your chart.
Your wave 2 is lower than your wave 1 origin. If you think usdjpy in your chart is on an uptrend, then wave 2 must not go lower than wave 1 red origin.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Hello EG,
tnx for helping me on Elliot Wave, couse i know that together we know a lot more. You said that there is somethnig missing on wave B-black. Maybe you thought that are missing 1,2,3,4,5, that i writte down in new picture. I also changed my pattern a-b-c (i change it, couse trend line was not broken) from wave 5 in B-black, to the wave 1 of the Big wave 2. And now the small wave 2 from 2 is not lower,than B-black if you thought this.
new picture,----------------------------------tnx againhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61062&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193426522
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #872
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 26, 2007 5:36pm
HonaForex
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif El
Unless you are showing as that you expect price to reach that 100% level in relation to a Hi-Lo Range you base it on.
Yes u r right I expect market to move inaccordance to wave 1 fibos & most of time its good to aim our target
shivaji
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#873
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 28, 2007 9:40pm
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by money http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hello EG,
tnx for helping me on Elliot Wave, couse i know that together we know a lot more. You said that there is somethnig missing on wave B-black. Maybe you thought that are missing 1,2,3,4,5, that i writte down in new picture. I also changed my pattern a-b-c (i change it, couse trend line was not broken) from wave 5 in B-black, to the wave 1 of the Big wave 2. And now the small wave 2 from 2 is not lower,than B-black if you thought this.
new picture,----------------------------------tnx againhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
Hey money.
When I said I was missing, I actually meant I could not understand or I felt it did not fit into the rules so Maybe I was wrong or I was missing or not seeing something you were seeing and that is why you labelled it that way.
Sorry for getting you confused with my english.
But to go back to that B wave of yours,
This is only assumming that your current count direction is correct..... (coz my mind has somehow blocked off making counts for other pairs as detailed as I do on the gbpjpy (which I assume that my count could still be full of mistakes )
a B wave is a corrective wave so it is normally in a 3 wave subdivision. 12345 labels are for impulse or motive waves that follow 3 basic rules ( wave 2 does not go beyond wave 1 origin, wave 3 is never the shortest among waves 1 3 and 5. and lastly that wave 4 does not go beyond wave 1 end or into the wave 2 price territory.)
So your wave B must be divided into 3 waves only not 5.
A corrective wave that is subdivided into 5 waves needs to be a triangle:
Diagonal (A) 53535
Diagonal (C) 33333
Symmetrical - Contracting (B)
Symmetrical - Expanding (B)
I hope this helps.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS.
Offhand, your 12345 inside your black wave A could be right. but you should put the end of your magenta zigzag on your wave 5 end and not on your red 2 of your "B" Black.
then you could probably have a small "a" red instead of the small 3 red, then a small b red instead of a small 4 red. and your small 5 red change to small c red. For your Black Wave B.
On the other hand your 12345 could also be correct but this could be the smal " A" wave instead of that "B" Black wave on your chart.
as you can see , your x is lower than your current smal wave 5 red. So we can not make your current black wave B stand or be valid as a Wave B end. Otherwise the beginning of your wave c will not be valid.
So I propose that your current Black B wave to be changed to Wave "A" followed by zigzag abc for your new Wave B black. then yur "x" as the wave 1 in your wave c down.
If it gets more confusing for you , please disregard....
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 28, 2007 10:29pm
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#874
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 1:09am
pips4life
Member
Member Since Apr 2007
195 Posts
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Hi EG,
I have been working hard to learn EW counts. I just finished my first read through the "Elliott Wave Principle" by Frost & Prechter, and now I'm applying what I know so far. Getting the counts right for extended waves, etc. is rather tricky.
As the joke goes, if you put 12 EW traders in a room, you'll get 13 possible EW counts... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif No doubt there is some subjectivity to it, but the closest true count would be one that meets the most rules.
I've put a lot of thought into the last 4 years of GJ and would appreciate any feedback. Have I followed the rules? Is my scenario plausible? I say were in a big C-wave down now, which usually subdivides into a 5-count wave. My 1st target is 213.50, 2nd less likely target is as low as ~206. Yes, those are big falls from here, but considering the big challenges facing the USD and subprime mess, I believe it could happen.
Since UJ usually closely follows GJ, I suspect I will find somewhat similar EW counts but I haven't tackled that yet.
I did a previous count for GU which suggested it may have peaked in July and now it's ready for a big move down, but I did that before I read the book. If GU is about to go down, that adds weight to GJ falling also.
Please comment... and thanks in advance.
Pips4life
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61401&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193634399 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61402&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193634399
Oct 29, 2007 6:51am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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pips4life....
let me continue with me reply to your query earlier..
"I've put a lot of thought into the last 4 years of GJ and would appreciate any feedback. Have I followed the rules? Is my scenario plausible? I say were in a big C-wave down now, which usually subdivides into a 5-count wave. My 1st target is 213.50, 2nd less likely target is as low as ~206. Yes, those are big falls from here, but considering the big challenges facing the USD and subprime mess, I believe it could happen.
***You could probably be right while I could be wrong about this. Your current wave 5 up which is the 251.07 high on my chart is just my wave 3.
I will explain further below after this post."
I think it is important that you check your wave counts of higher time frame than what you were just looking at. I am assuming that your wave count was only up to the daily. ( please correct me if I am wrong )
The fact that your wave count shows that you already have a wave 5 on your chart ( which I assume is a daily chart ) then you follow it up with an ABC wave, then that means you still expect the price to go higher than the previous 251.07..... This would bring you to considering the whole 5 wave move from Sept 2000 @ 148.19 low to July 2007 @ 251.07 to be just the first sub wave of a bigger wave 3.
But if you look at the monthly chart below, I have labelled my chart as to how I see the EW Count is on the monthly chart. You will see that I consider price now as being a part of an unfinished flat corrective wave.
Why do I think we are in a flat corrective wave? It is because I consider the wave 2 you see in the chart as a sharp zigzag. And by the rule of alternation, wave 4 must be a complex sideways corrective wave.... thus the flat corrective wave expectation for this wave 4.
Moving further, since I consider this as a flat corrective wave, then by looking at the chart again, we can see that it is possible that we have already finished the wave A and the Wave B and that price now is basically trying to complete the Wave C in the monthly chart.
Then I go to the guideline I have compiled where C is said to be related to A by the following Percentages: 61.8%, 100%, and 161.8%
So far, we will note that price has already gone higher than the 61.8% FE Level.
Now we have to check if this wave C up has completed 5 waves. We also have to note size proportion of the waves.
Here is where I am struggling to find the correct wave count on the GBPJPY.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61463&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193654935 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61464&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193654935
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 29, 2007 11:27pm Reason: spelling edit
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#880
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 8:00am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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Here is an option for the weekly Count.
Still trying to fit the waves into the rules.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61495&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193659230 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61496&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193659230 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61500&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193659720
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 29, 2007 10:08am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
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My limit of 235.85 to maintain a bearish bias in the long term has been invalidated with the attainment of 236.76.
I can not have a 1234 count now from the high of 240.66 which initially was my end of wave c equivalent to Point 0 of wave 1 down for C wave Down because wave 4 has entered price territory of wave 2 ( by reaching 236.76 )
This would therefore indicate that gbpjpy is back on the uptrend. I would not think of this as just a continuation of a wave c inside Big wave B as end of wave c inside this Big wave B will get too high.
So I would consider the move from 219.31 as end of wave 34 and the beginning of wave 35 and wave 351.
Chances are the carry trades is currently underway in the long run.
But we may be in on a small retracement on the 1 hr chart.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61533&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193666031 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61534&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193666031 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61536&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193666692 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61537&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193666692
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61538&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193666905 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61543&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193668073
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 29, 2007 10:28am
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 10:46am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
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went long
@ 236.20 and
@ 236.00 then letting it run till end of wave 35 @ range of FE 176.4 to 200.0 @ 237.45 to 237.99
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#883
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 11:23am
el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
went long
@ 236.20 and
@ 236.00 then letting it run till end of wave 35 @ range of FE 176.4 to 200.0 @ 237.45 to 237.99
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Getting sleepy now. exited trade from 236.0 for a 19 pip gain after paying 18 pip spread. Not that bad for less than an hour's work.
Not a very good R/R ratio but none the less a Gain. But leaving the other trade running.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
above trades are on live account. trades on demo will leave running
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#884
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 1:13pm
HonaForex
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif gpy/Yen Count Monthly
See chart below............let me know wats wrong with count
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61589&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193677891 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61590&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193677926
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Oct 29, 2007 1:21pm
HonaForex
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif gpy/yen Weekly count
We r in wave 5 as seen in monthly chart & also see weekly Zoom
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61596&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193678437 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61597&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193678468
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #887
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 1:27pm
el grande
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Proposed direction / route of GBPJPY.
So expecting GBPJPY to get to 235.51 then from there continue its move going North toward 238.00
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61599&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193678762
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#888
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 1:37pm
HonaForex
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif gpy/yen 4 R
see chart.........poor in typing
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61601&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193679294 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61603&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193679450
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Oct 29, 2007 1:40pm
el grande
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adjusted percentage
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61604&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193679604
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #890
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 1:50pm
el grande
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Hona....
I initially thought about playing out a triangle in wave 2.
However, Triangles are rarely seen in wave 2 and besides A C and E did not line up properly.
So I opted for a complex wave .
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61608&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193680183
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#891
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 1:52pm
HonaForex
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Hey
I do not think your wave 3 red is valid because your wave 4 will definitely land in wave 2 terrritory.
we r in wave 5 of wave 3............
May I ask what your basis is for using WXY?
wave a (red) is in 3 waves & later we have 5 waves & 5 waves in down direction,which i labled WXY
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#892
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 2:02pm
el grande
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labelling waves expected to be expanding
replacing or adding chart to show current development
****update. looks like developing into a flat instead of an irregular flat or expanding flat.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61612&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193680923 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61614&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193681359 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61618&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193682056
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 29, 2007 2:22pm Reason: adding chart
Oct 29, 2007 2:44pm
el grande
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getting ready to enter my Long Trade.
1st entry @ 235.71 . This couild just be a wave 3 so a retrace going up is possible before going back down towards 235.46 for possible wave 5 end of this wave c down.
SL set at 235.34 which is 1 pip lower than the end of wave 1.
But it is also p[ossible that lowest that this pair will attain prior to an uptrend may just be at 235.71
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61622&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193683465
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #897
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 3:00pm
HonaForex
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif El
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
getting ready to enter my Long Trade.
1st entry @ 235.71 . This couild just be a wave 3 so a retrace going up is possible before going back down towards 235.46 for possible wave 5 end of this wave c down.
SL set at 235.34 which is 1 pip lower than the end of wave 1.
But it is also p[ossible that lowest that this pair will attain prior to an uptrend may just be at 235.71
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Wat r u showing is 1 min chart,tats where i m confusing bcos i seeing at higher time frame...............well before i use to trade at 1 min chart but i believe Elliot wave should not be traded less than 60 min time frame....IMO
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#898
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 3:01pm
el grande
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get ready
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61626&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193684455
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#899
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 3:30pm
el grande
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expanded flat or irregular flat may be developing after all.
My bad. I have to learn to spot wave size proportion.
So it can still go up to 236.98 and then come down to 235.46
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61631&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193686243
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#900
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2007 3:32pm
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Gbp/Usd : Chart Update
Price has stabilized again , .........
Still there's no break below 2.0740
---------------------------------------------------
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61632&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193686366
Oct 30, 2007 3:50am
HonaForex
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Usd/yen Update
Usd/yen seen clear 5 wave from 117.97 to 113.25 in form of wave 1 or A & Wave 2 or B is turned in complex wave in form of W (complete),X in process & Y sometime later today.......see below
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61872&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193730420 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61873&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193730446
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Oct 29, 2007 3:50pm
el grande
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tracking the route
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=61645&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193687434
Oct 31, 2007 12:32am
el grande
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need to get out of this upward channel.
If price gets back into the downward green pitchfork then magenta boxes will be my targets
But if price continues to climb and gets past the median line of the upward Pitchfork, then my new Targets will be towards the 239 Level which is the Weekly R2 (239.03) and nearthe Daily R3 (239.13)
I hope auxesis can provide some insight re use of these Pitchforks.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62196&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193805073
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#910
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 12:43am
el grande
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Favoring a Downward move for a bigger wave 2 down and a possible Bullish Gartley Set up.
Note too the Ichimoku cloud thinning on the 15min chart.
235.85 is also very near the following:
235.94 Murrey MaTh Major Support and Resistance Level on the 15 min chart
236.04 15 min 240 EMA
235.98 Daily 5 SMA
Still trying to see how I can strengthen my analysis by supplementing and studying price in relation to tools used in other systems aside from EW Counts.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62199&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193805784
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 31, 2007 12:51am Reason: additional info
Oct 31, 2007 2:12am
pips4life
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Hi EG,
We will both benefit from discussing EW counts, that's for sure. With regards to that "academic" discussion on long-term GJ, I'll offer this chart of the Nikkei index from 1950-2002, from Prechter's book "Conquer the Crash", which basically hypothesized that the Dow was going to go into a huge tailspin from 10000 down to triple digits soon after the book was published (3/2002). Wrong timing at the very least, if not entirely wrong as there has been no such gigantic crash (yet).
Anyway, it's hard to say the Nikkei will correlate well with the GJ (or any xJ) prices, because of the weird relationship of the Yen to their market. They love a weak currency as it favors exports. Even so, I suppose if the market is making big moves, it will certain affect the currency demand as international investors move money into (or out of) their market. Looking at it a bit, it does seem to correlate somewhat. The Nikkei peak around 89/90 and the preceeding years was a downward trend for the GJ (stronger Yen). Funny though, the Yen kept getting stronger for another 5-6 years, bottoming mid-95. UJ bottomed a bit earlier in 95. With currency pairs, we are talking about TWO economies, so to be fair, one would have to put up the charts for the markets of the other country next to the Nikkei.
What I can see is there does appear to be a big correction in the early 70's. That would perhaps support my hypothesis of a 1 and 2 wave prior to 1978 when the floating currency market was established. Too bad the chart is arithmetic scale rather than log scale because the earlier years are dwarfed. There was also a long downward trend in the early 60's. For more recent price action, check out http://finance.yahoo.com symbol ^N225
Pips4life
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62211&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193810190
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #912
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 3:31am
el grande
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Price bounced off the 15m 100SMA
Bounced back above Ichimoku Cloud of 15m chart
Price staying on the upward Pitchfork.
Boxed areas are new TP Levels
expected towards the Weekly R2 of 239.03 or higher.
Note that TP for this upward move are the 61.8, 100 and 161.8 FE Levels Extention of the waves 1 and 2 targeting wave 33. But wave 35 will be towards 243.22 FE 261.8 and 244.60 FE 300.0
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62228&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193815883 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62229&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193815883
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#913
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 3:40am
Serega
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Hi El. Its to difficult to understand the pictures where you try to mix diffrent systems, be independent, if you count weves, then use waves and fibohttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#914
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 3:44am
el grande
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TP Levels
close up
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62231&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193816545 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62233&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193816638
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#915
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2007 4:00am
Serega
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I see such wave account of usd/jpy
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=62236&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1193817635