Oct 10, 2008 12:00am
Rocroy
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The counting is now almost finished and we should see some corrective moves up. Notice the 161 fib support. Excellent trading setup building up again.
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Trading becomes very easy, if your counting is right...
Here's an example of geppy, last 5th wave should drop to 171 at least - below 4th wave. Tight sl can be placed at wave 1 bottom.
R
Attachment 155934
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #560
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 10, 2008 5:39am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar69953_1.giffanias
zoopy turtle / wave follower
Member Since May 2008
35 Posts
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Hi guys,
first of all sorry for my bad english. I am new to EW count and this is my first chart to share with you. Eurusd 5 min is it valid?
Your opinion please
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#561
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 10, 2008 7:06am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar69953_1.giffanias
zoopy turtle / wave follower
Member Since May 2008
35 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/euro.gif update eurusd
if a = c then possible target 1.3670 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif in 5 min timeframe
lets see
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#562
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 10, 2008 8:19am
Rocroy
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Thanks again for the advice http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif Understanding and counting corrections correctly is a must for good entries.
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Impulses are easy, and it is where we make money. But your 'set up' waves are 2, 4, and B, so you have to know all the nuances of their patterns, to enter. The classic trade is after a small 5 wave impulse, then set up is - count 3 wave correction in same degree, then enter after wave C is complete. Lowest risk, highest reward trade.
Corrections, especially large degree 4th waves like EUR/USD was in this spring, require several alternate counts until you can rule them out. It helps to study the currency you trade, and make screen shots of real formations in the time frame you trade, so you can print and post it nearby. Start with text book examples, but move into a dozen real samples of flats, triangles, and zig-zags that you can reference in real time as they happen.
Short course, if it is not an impulse by the rules, then it is a corrective pattern.
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#563
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 10, 2008 8:42am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tmac http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
then and now
Excellent count Tmac. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
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#564
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 10, 2008 8:44am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
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My cable chart.
I believe we are in wave 5.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=156326&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1223642575
Oct 12, 2008 11:04am
Tmac
work in progress
Member Since Oct 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif747 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif aussie daily
for review only from the 8th
Attached Fileshttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gifAUD- USD DAILY GET COUNT (1).pdf (29.2 KB, 34 views)
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 12, 2008 11:05am
Tmac
work in progress
Member Since Oct 2007
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Euro
for review only from the 8th
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#575
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Tmac
work in progress
Member Since Oct 2007
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif orange juice
for review only from the 8th
good money in OJ
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#576
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 12, 2008 11:07am
Tmac
work in progress
Member Since Oct 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif747 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif UJ
for review only from the 8th
T-bonds
T-notes
Nikkei
silver
corn gold copperand more, all available if you want it ask
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#577
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 12, 2008 12:10pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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EurGbp chart.
We may be in ABC correction here..
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#578
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 12, 2008 12:19pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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EurGbp H1 chart.
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#579
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 12, 2008 1:00pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar39038_1.gifovaforty
I Love EMAS!
Member Since May 2007
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The market is being controlled by panic and fear. Markets are spooky. Things are so scary, that the world's government leaders are meeting to solve this crisis, if possible.
Smart money has a Risk Aversion Sentiment strategy.
We need to see this sentiment subside before any meaningful trend changes are to occur.
Stand aside with cash ready to exploit some no-brainer trade opportunities this week.
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#580
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 12, 2008 2:01pm
fontu
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif just try put # , if correctly done
I try to put # eurgbp chart & want to know if they are correct . I am very new to learn EL.
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#581
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pipeye
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
149 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Cable
Looks as if we are in (v) of 5 of III (or C), possible to be complete at 1.6500-1.6550 area. The 61.8% of 1.3680-2.1143 on the Monthly is @ 1.6519. This lines up nicely with some support targets on the 1 hr, and may be a good launching spot for a sizeable wave IV retracement up to previous wave 4 of III around 1.8671. Any thoughts?
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#582
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 12, 2008 8:49pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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GbpJpy in small tf.
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#583
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 12, 2008 9:04pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ovaforty http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
The market is being controlled by panic and fear. Markets are spooky. Things are so scary, that the world's government leaders are meeting to solve this crisis, if possible.
Smart money has a Risk Aversion Sentiment strategy.
We need to see this sentiment subside before any meaningful trend changes are to occur.
Stand aside with cash ready to exploit some no-brainer trade opportunities this week.
Totally agree.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
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#584
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 12, 2008 11:10pm
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Us Dollar
Elliott Waves Formations
Volatility are is your friend ...............http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif!
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#585
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 12, 2008 11:58pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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Hi all,
This UsdJpy chart from other forum.
Posting here for reference..
PS: Thanks Brad_1199 for the chart.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=156877&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1223870265
Oct 13, 2008 3:32am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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Cable 5min setup.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=156922&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1223883157
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 13, 2008 4:09am
Rocroy
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Member Since Jun 2007
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My 5th wave count is a bit different... according to it wave5 is complete. Comments?
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
My cable chart.
I believe we are in wave 5.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=156936&thumb=1&d=1223885380
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#588
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 13, 2008 4:20am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
My 5th wave count is a bit different... according to it wave5 is complete. Comments?
I agree with your count, looks like a good call. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Do you follow EUR/USD as well with a chart?
__________________
- FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
"Expect the best - prepare for the worst" Trade Charts and commentary: http://vault.bz
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#589
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 13, 2008 4:32am
Rocroy
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Member Since Jun 2007
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usdchf chart, time to go south?
R
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=156938&thumb=1&d=1223886756
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#590
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 13, 2008 4:49am
Rocroy
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Member Since Jun 2007
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Sure, their moves look much the same at the moment. Perhaps both are creating another triangle again, that is at least what cable seems to doing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
...
Do you follow EUR/USD as well with a chart?
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#591
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 13, 2008 5:08am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Swissy ALT view
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
usdchf chart, time to go south?
Perhaps not?
Consider this alternate count, based on relations with other major currencies and USD Index. DX and CHF low was probably wave 3, and then had a failed wave 5 = 'truncated'.
So in you Swissy chart, ALT = change your w.a to w.4, and w.b to w.5
Then the big move up was a wave 1 rocket, and we are now in w.3 or an extension in w.3
Try that out, see what you think. Makes you careful about going short if we are in a w.3 rocket. Same applies for EUR/USD http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
- FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#592
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 13, 2008 6:22am
Rocroy
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Member Since Jun 2007
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True, that is a possible scenario. On the other hand, I believe Elliot said that "the simplest pattern is likely to be the correct explanation most of the time". So I stick to my plan, but keep in mind your alternative and wait for further PA.
Thanks,
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Perhaps not?
Consider this alternate count, based on relations with other major currencies and USD Index. DX and CHF low was probably wave 3, and then had a failed wave 5 = 'truncated'.
So in you Swissy chart, ALT = change your w.a to w.4, and w.b to w.5
Then the big move up was a wave 1 rocket, and we are now in w.3 or an extension in w.3
Try that out, see what you think. Makes you careful about going short if we are in a w.3 rocket. Same applies for EUR/USD http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#593
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 13, 2008 6:46am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
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By all means, stick to your plan, just sharing alternate views. I had the same count as you, and moved it one back because the first wave is too small and dwarfed by the 5th, when they should be equal ideally. And again, when you line up Dollar Index, Oil, Gold, Yen, Eur, and GBP, they share common dates when they finished moves that is hard to ignore. Time will tell,
What Elliott said was to use the count that fits the most rules. (and breaks the fewest guidelines)
__________________
- FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#594
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 13, 2008 7:55am
nms
Member
Member Since Mar 2008
6 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/yen.gif JPY Charts
Dear All,
I have posted my counts on USDJPY.
Eager to get comments on my charts!!..
Rgds,,
Muthu
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#595
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 13, 2008 9:14am
pipeye
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
149 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Cable
Is it possible that we have completed wave C of the correction, or have we just completed wave 3 of 5 down?
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#596
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 13, 2008 11:53pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
My 5th wave count is a bit different... according to it wave5 is complete. Comments?
R
Attachment 156936
Agree with your chart.
I made mistake in w-5, will be more careful in future.
Thanks for correcting my counts.
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#597
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 14, 2008 12:00am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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Cable..
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#598
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 14, 2008 12:10am
Rocroy
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Member Since Jun 2007
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Well, it happens. I've had "a few" in my charts, and surely a few is still there waiting for @#?!! and corrections http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Agree with your chart.
I made mistake in w-5, will be more careful in future.
Thanks for correcting my counts.
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#599
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 14, 2008 12:40am
nms
Member
Member Since Mar 2008
6 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Cable..
Totally agree..with your counts..
a clear five wave move....we can see a three wave correction near to 1.73 levels..i hope..
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#600
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 14, 2008 12:54am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bitrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
http://forekc.blogspot.com/
targets 1.7180 or 1.7370
http://fx-trade.ucoz.ru/wave/gbp.gif
Target reached. good job!!
Oct 14, 2008 9:23pm
Rocroy
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Member Since Jun 2007
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I wonder if this correction A count is right or wrong... those weekend gaps give some challenge. Any other views?
R
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=157657&thumb=1&d=1224033727
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #603
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 15, 2008 1:21am
fontu
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Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
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Good analysis & hope correct. Though I am very new to learn EW I see my chart after completing A wave now it is forming the B wave & in c correction of the subwaves of A or in subwave 4 of B , do not know if possible without abc correction it can run 1-5 waves again or how many way a single wave should count anywhere??
fontu
Last edited by fontu, Oct 15, 2008 1:47am
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#604
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 15, 2008 7:42am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Hi all,
my cable chart.
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#605
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 15, 2008 7:55am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I wonder if this correction A count is right or wrong... those weekend gaps give some challenge. Any other views?
R
Attachment 157657
I think your count is correct.
The gap i took it as wave 1, but not so sure abt it too..
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#606
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 15, 2008 7:56am
Rocroy
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Looks good http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
There is a change that price takes a dip down first, eg. to previous hl, as there is no real a-b-c in wave4. Anyhow your target is imo ok, could be somewhere between 7750-7800?
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi all,
my cable chart.
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#607
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 15, 2008 7:57am
Rocroy
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Ok, thanks http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I think your count is correct.
The gap i took it as wave 1, but not so sure abt it too..
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#608
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 15, 2008 11:37am
fontu
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I think your count is correct.
The gap i took it as wave 1, but not so sure abt it too..
I counted above the gap as A instead 1 then B & big C with all el subwaves .
http://www.gogetin.info/euel2.gif
fontu
Last edited by fontu, Oct 15, 2008 12:15pm
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#609
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 15, 2008 2:48pm
Rocroy
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Ok, I guess that often there are possibilities for different counts. But then this becomes a problem, if these different ways of counting are proposing different next moves - one says price is going up, the other one says it is going down...
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by fontu http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I counted above the gap as A instead 1 then B & big C with all el subwaves .
http://www.gogetin.info/euel2.gif
fontu
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#610
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 16, 2008 12:50am
fontu
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Ok, I guess that often there are possibilities for different counts. But then this becomes a problem, if these different ways of counting are proposing different next moves - one says price is going up, the other one says it is going down...
R
Now eu at 1.3357 as expected in c wave or even can be B wave ( most likely ) and waiting to finish it before go up to form C to go UP above 1.3785 ( A) .
Sorry Au is identical to eu I mention here Eu prices .In Au prices at 0.6698 bounce back from lowest 0.6494 either it already in C wave or even the B wave may not be finished then it go much down to 0.6494 to finish subwave (5) of B to go up again to form big C much beyound 0.7236 ( A)
http://www.gogetin.info/auel22.gif
Yes diferrent counts make problem to me as I am very new & no time go through all those books or time consuming courses.The smallest tf should have the smallest waves those can be counted without any confusion & every time they should confirm the original count in different tf also as changes in lowest tf ultimately represented in higher tf .
Anyway still know lots & experts are not coming to disclose their secrets & I am more confident that using ELW perfect way can make more pips every time It goes , that is one can take pips in every single wave it forms , anytime go to the market & earn only when it counts perfectly.
fontu
Last edited by fontu, Oct 16, 2008 1:14am
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#611
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 16, 2008 2:24am
Rocroy
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Looks like the correction is complete now. It was almost impossible to count the final waves, so there is a change that euro wants to visit that 161 fib line first and heads north after that is done.
In a bigger perspective euro may continue consolidation for some time, because of this economic hassle going on. So that might give us a double zigzag - or is it a sprint up? Let's wait and see ...
R
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=158179&thumb=1&d=1224137704
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#612
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 16, 2008 8:28am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Cable chart.
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#613
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 16, 2008 8:53am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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NzdUsd.
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#614
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 17, 2008 2:37am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar79975_2.gifmy30marahaba
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif new trader learned of elliot wave
Dear blue and others,
would you please correction me if i made wrong calculation of UJ using elliot wave method.
your kindly comment and correction is very much appreciated ....
here my chart of UJ H4.
Best Regards,
my30marahabahttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/peace.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thinking.gif
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#615
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2008 7:26am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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EurChf
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Oct 19, 2008 7:35am
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EurUsd
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2008 8:40am
Lenoxer
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Hello
Has anyone ever used Refined Elliott Trader by Richard Swannell?
Thanks,
Lenoxer
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#618
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 19, 2008 11:51am
fontu
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661 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EU
started learning it actually.
Just now I see the eurusd chart in 2 tf, M30 & H1 , they tell different story & again after 1 full sets of movements the next one will start unfolding & may be we are in the transition period.
See M30 chart:
http://www.gogetin.info/eu30el1.gif
There is bearish divergence, completed a diagonal triangle ( as can be point as wave 4), & most possibly continuation of the downtrend to some extent perhaps .
See H1 chart
http://www.gogetin.info/eu1el1.gif
Bullish divergence,the big correction wave B possibly finished & already started the Big C wave to go much up . Not impossible that Big B not yet finished ,triangle break downside correctly to a new low to form the new B & then again go up to create C . Then only both tf charts fit .
So probable movements , first retest bottom of B (1.3340 )break to go much down say 1.32 or less,have a bottom & start up towarsd 1.3682 or up if fundaments supports so.
With oil if go up this week ,bring the EU with it & this movements are not impossible .Range should be 1.32 to 1.36 when taking consideration of all aspects moderately.
If do aggressively then they should be 1.30 to 1.4
Please give your opinion in this respect , we may not follow this analysis into trades but can follow up the results together.
fontu
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#619
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 20, 2008 12:24am
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GbpJpy chart
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#620
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 20, 2008 2:08am
pkimnyc http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
GbpJpy chart
hi blue.
i have the same count on ABC correction on guppy, and eu.
i think same ABC correction can be seen on uj and cable as well.
do you agree?
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#621
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 20, 2008 2:45am
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Gold
Hey guys, whats up? I am just jumping around a litlle and decided to put some gold chart in to this threat.
This gold has been pretty tricky since the new yearly lows. Fisrtly I was looking for a possible a-b-c-d-e triangle in wave II. But now when are prices down at 76.4% Fibo support looks like we have the zig zag correction with the irregular b. The fisrt signs of the bulls could already be here as the market broke the trend lines. But I suggest you to be patient, form my experineces, market always need a lot of room around this 76.4% support, because it can happen that it wont tested thsi leve only once. However, the risk and award is loking pretty good...
If the oil breaks the support at $70 and euro pushes below 1.3350 then we may also see new lows on the gold...But in this situattion I am hopping on flat on the gold, because otherwise I will need to change my wave count, cause this one will be invalidated.
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Last edited by lancelot41, Oct 20, 2008 2:59am
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#622
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 20, 2008 2:52am
pkimnyc http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lancelot41 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hey guys, whats up? I am just jumping around a litlle and decided to put some gold chart in thsi threat.
This gold has been pretty tricky since the new yearly lows. Fisrtly I was looking for a possible a-b-c-d-e triangle in wave II. But now when are prices down at 76.4% Fibo support looks like we have the zig zag correction with the irregular b. The fisrt signs of the bulls could already be here as the market broke the trend lines. But I suggest you to be patient, form my experineces, market always need a lot of room around this 76.4% support, because it can happen that it wont tested thsi leve only once. However, the risk and award is loking pretty good...
If the oil breaks the support at $70 and euro pushes below 1.3350 then we may also see new lows on the gold...But in this situattion I am hopping on flat on the gold, because otherwise I will need to change my wave count, cause this one will be invalidated.
Attachment 159305
wow, didn't expect to see you here. been reading your posts.
good to see you here. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#623
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 20, 2008 2:57am
Jnita
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lancelot41 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hey guys, whats up? I am just jumping around a litlle and decided to put some gold chart in thsi threat.
This gold has been pretty tricky since the new yearly lows. Fisrtly I was looking for a possible a-b-c-d-e triangle in wave II. But now when are prices down at 76.4% Fibo support looks like we have the zig zag correction with the irregular b. The fisrt signs of the bulls could already be here as the market broke the trend lines. But I suggest you to be patient, form my experineces, market always need a lot of room around this 76.4% support, because it can happen that it wont tested thsi leve only once. However, the risk and award is loking pretty good...
If the oil breaks the support at $70 and euro pushes below 1.3350 then we may also see new lows on the gold...But in this situattion I am hopping on flat on the gold, because otherwise I will need to change my wave count, cause this one will be invalidated.
Attachment 159305
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#624
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 20, 2008 3:14am
Rocroy
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Yes, I see similar counts with many pairs, at least usdcad could be included in your list. However, uj seems to be a different case, my count there is different (in the light of latest moves mine seems to be wrong)...
My updated usdjpy count looks now like this, very tricky, might still have some errors in it. Any alternatives for this count?
R
PS. Just noticed that wave3 is not correct...
Quote:
Originally Posted by pkimnyc http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
hi blue.
i have the same count on ABC correction on guppy, and eu.
i think same ABC correction can be seen on uj and cable as well.
do you agree?
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#625
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 20, 2008 3:25am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Leading diagonals
Leading diagonals are quite rare, and expanding variety are even more rare.
Grega - nice to see you drop in. I favor a bearish Gold count, still favor an unfinished Cycle degree correction from the Mar 17 high is not complete yet.
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#626
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 20, 2008 4:23am
Rocroy
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That is exactly what I meant, not too happy with the count. So how would you count uj? Thanks,
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Leading diagonals are quite rare, and expanding variety are even more rare.
Grega - nice to see you drop in. I favor a bearish Gold count, still favor an unfinished Cycle degree correction from the Mar 17 high is not complete yet.
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#627
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 20, 2008 5:18am
nms
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6 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/yen.gif USDJPY 120 Mins
Hi,
I had got a different count....your comments on the count ..please
Rgds
Muthu
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#628
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 20, 2008 6:16am
Rocroy
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Hi Muthu, an expanding diagonal seems to be pretty unavoidable, to make some sense to counting. But the rest from your wave2 onwards has imo many options. Your counting is one, but perhaps it leads to too many nested counts (cycles within eachother)? Here you can see my once again my updated proposal, which is a little bit different to yours.
There could also be some triangle plays with the ongoing correction, but obviously this is one of those pairs where we just have to wait for more price movements until it is possible to create a reliable count.
BR,
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by nms http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi,
I had got a different count....your comments on the count ..please
Rgds
Muthu
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Last edited by Rocroy, Oct 20, 2008 7:22am Reason: Incorrect chart removed.
Oct 20, 2008 2:11pm
Rocroy
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I have updated my counts, again... Do we have a real truncation this time with euro?
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=159579&thumb=1&d=1224526220
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 20, 2008 11:51pm
GWexell
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif What's The Count?
Hey guys, I'm new to the thread. BTW, nice thread. I spent time over the weekend catching up to now what has become this point in the thread. Anyway, I'm wondering what everyone now thinks about the GBP/JPY pair. Are we still heading up the the "C" wave or do you feel that the wave came up short today, and that we are going to start a new #1 point tomorrow? Or Maybe it's a sideways x,y,z?
Any thoughts of the current count after today (Monday)?
Thanks...
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#634
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 21, 2008 12:07am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Coount is good
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I have updated my counts, again... Do we have a real truncation this time with euro?
Your count looks good, I also had a small triangle w.iv that broke lower last night as expected. Not sure small w.v is done. It is not truncated technically if it is lower than w.3 (the B wave does not count). In light of the turmoil, the push down has been more sideways.
I see the final w.5 on your chart as small w.i of something larger, likely wave 3 down.
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#635
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 21, 2008 1:16am
Rocroy
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Yes, you are right about the truncation, this looks like one because of the correction having the lowest point in the pattern, but as w5 goes lower than w3, this isn't a truncation.
The last wave may not be finished yet, but as a whole this pattern looks now pretty good, and the 161 fib support seems to be holding.
But better to wait for more confirmation.
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Your count looks good, I also had a small triangle w.iv that broke lower last night as expected. Not sure small w.v is done. It is not truncated technically if it is lower than w.3 (the B wave does not count). In light of the turmoil, the push down has been more sideways.
I see the final w.5 on your chart as small w.i of something larger, likely wave 3 down.
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#636
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 21, 2008 2:23am
fontu
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661 Posts
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it is in great down trend long term , see d1 ,w1 chart and most of the retracement attempts continue to failed & now it is 5th leg of a vey big downtrend , not even middle but it seems at the starting of it ( ii) ,the next move (iii) will be very big may enough to go below 1.30.
though it seems an arrest as 5 th fail & double bottom but virtually it impossible to think so & as there is not any divergence arround in h1 chart not interruption in thie existing down trend of 5th leg should be happen.
lets see what happen in near future , today.
http://www.gogetin.info/eu1el7.gif
also I see usdjpy
I just see 5 th wave failure & presented at double top in C retracement wave in usdjpy & hence there should be good movement down here , watch it
http://www.gogetin.info/uj1el1.gif
also see the same in m15,m30 having completed all the el pattenrs .also see the bearish divergence.
and there no such compelling datas today ,so will go without much fundaments to interrup( though oil expected up due to fear of output cut by OPEC) .
please advice & help correction.
fontu
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#637
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 21, 2008 2:49am
pipeye
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149 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Cable
This is my current count for the Cable. I believe we are in wave (iii) of 3 of (v) of III down?
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Last edited by pipeye, Oct 21, 2008 3:04am
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#638
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 21, 2008 11:10am
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i totally agree with ur counting bro..
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipeye http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
This is my current count for the Cable. I believe we are in wave (iii) of 3 of (v) of III down?
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#639
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 21, 2008 4:20pm
Tmac
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for review only
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#640
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 21, 2008 4:20pm
Tmac
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif UJ
for review only
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#641
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 21, 2008 4:21pm
Tmac
work in progress
Member Since Oct 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif747 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif orange juice
for review only
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#642
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 21, 2008 4:22pm
Tmac
work in progress
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for review only
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#643
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 21, 2008 11:09pm
fontu
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
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update eurusd yesterday's trend not yet finished even after 572pips down & still in subwaves c of (iii) in wave 5th but there is reversal bullish divergence in H1 chart .
Eu now 1.2972 & best bottom can be 1.2876 or 1.2761
http://www.gogetin.info/eu1el9.gif
fontu
Last edited by fontu, Oct 21, 2008 11:21pm
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#644
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2008 12:29am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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My EurUsd chart..
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#645
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2008 12:31am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EurUsd
Pls feedback if i miss something..
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Oct 22, 2008 1:12am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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NzdUsd
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #647
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2008 5:09am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55086_1.gifZappa
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Patterns/price action do exist in forex. However, EW is a COMPLETE waste of time. Focus on the patterns, not the counts.
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#648
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2008 5:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zappa http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Patterns/price action do exist in forex. However, EW is a COMPLETE waste of time. Focus on the patterns, not the counts.
Thanks for reminding us that our work is worthless. Now please get off this thread.
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#649
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2008 5:55am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar59904_2.giflancelot41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zappa http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Patterns/price action do exist in forex. However, EW is a COMPLETE waste of time. Focus on the patterns, not the counts.
I always thought that exactly with the counts we reconize the patterns; or....?
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#650
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2008 6:00am
pipeye
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
149 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Cable
My look at the Cable. I belive we are in a short wave (iv) of (v) of 5 down. Would love some feedback.
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#651
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2008 7:05am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar57903_1.gifvalius
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---------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=515 :
Quote:
Originally Posted by valius http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
When i look at 4H chart i agree with you that now we're in AB* correction.
But when i look at monthly, weekly, daily charts i prefer the scenario that the correction is already finished and now we are in the 3rd wave. So i believe that there will be lower price than your 5th wave.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=517 :
Quote:
Originally Posted by valius http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Sorry, i didn't have much time yesterday(today also). Anyway here's my quick count:
---------------------------------------------------------------
Perhaps my count was at least good, because the move downwards is sharp and it is very likely that we are in a 3rd wave now.
This week i didn't short the pair from 1.34 , because i have bought different counts from a professional, who thought that we are not in a 3rd wave now http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
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#652
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2008 9:20am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipeye http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
My look at the Cable. I belive we are in a short wave (iv) of (v) of 5 down. Would love some feedback.
Good count. Totally agree.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
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#653
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2008 9:36am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar35817_1.gif13thheaven
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but where would tha wave iv go...?
need some space to sell then http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Good count. Totally agree.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
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#654
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2008 9:48am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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My guess is 1.6470.
Wat do u think?
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#655
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2008 9:50am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar35817_1.gif13thheaven
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i'm lookin for 6550... is it a little too much? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/sad.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
My guess is 1.6470.
Wat do u think?
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#656
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2008 9:52am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
My guess is 1.6470.
Wat do u think?
Cable chart.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=160497&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1224683540 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=160500&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1224683761
Oct 22, 2008 12:10pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 13thheaven http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
damn, missed the train...
i'm searching on the right spot to enter, but when i go to the bathroom, the price suddenly slipped...
thx for the info though...
idiotic me... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/sad.gif
btw can u share EW of EUR/USD?
does it have the same idea with GBP/USD?
Hi 13thheaven,
Dont worry about missed trade, there is always others to come. i missed it too http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
My EurUsd count is very similar to Cable.
Pls correct me if i miss something.
Regards,
Blue
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=160552&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1224691867
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #663
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2008 12:26pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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EurChf chart.
Pls add ur commants..
-blue
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=160559&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1224692783
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#664
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2008 5:33pm
pipeye
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
149 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Cable Update
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Good count. Totally agree.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
Hey Blue Bottle,
Thanks. It's been challenging keeping up with these overextended moves. I have an update, as I believe we are now in (v) of (v) of 5 down, that could potentially end around 1.60 area.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=160705&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1224711103 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=160706&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1224711103
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#665
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 22, 2008 11:17pm
fontu
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
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though there was a breakout of the triangle but it seemed failed 5th wave to have a double bottom but can't believe it !!
The 5th wave of such a big trend plus the v subwave all can be so short ,totally failed & very transient, overnight? not even seen by most in trading sessions???????????simply impossible .................
I do not now thinking this way , actually true breakout not happened yet it continues make complexes in the iv wave correction
http://www.gogetin.info/eu1el12.gif
with clear bearish divergence still there .
fontu
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#666
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2008 12:25am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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UsdChf
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=160821&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1224735918
Oct 23, 2008 4:04am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fontu http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
though there was a breakout of the triangle but it seemed failed 5th wave to have a double bottom but can't believe it !!
The 5th wave of such a big trend plus the v subwave all can be so short ,totally failed & very transient, overnight? not even seen by most in trading sessions???????????simply impossible .................
I do not now thinking this way , actually true breakout not happened yet it continues make complexes in the iv wave correction
with clear bearish divergence still there .
fontu
EurUsd.
-> w-C is exactly equal to w-A.
-> w-C is in 12345 form if we take w-4 as diamond pattern.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=160880&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1224749054 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=160889&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1224749301
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #668
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2008 4:17am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar35817_1.gif13thheaven
FF Lover
Member Since Mar 2007
215 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fontu http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
though there was a breakout of the triangle but it seemed failed 5th wave to have a double bottom but can't believe it !!
The 5th wave of such a big trend plus the v subwave all can be so short ,totally failed & very transient, overnight? not even seen by most in trading sessions???????????simply impossible .................
I do not now thinking this way , actually true breakout not happened yet it continues make complexes in the iv wave correction
http://www.gogetin.info/eu1el12.gif
with clear bearish divergence still there .
fontu
maybe it's just wave (ii) of wave v... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
@blue bottle
thx for your analysis...
keep up your good work
i agree with ur charts...
btw please take a look at loco...
it's creating inverted cup... and it's on 161.8% fib, will it retrace now?
please make some comment on my analysis... i think it's forming wave 4...
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Last edited by 13thheaven, Oct 23, 2008 5:06am
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#669
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2008 10:38am
fontu
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
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Bue bottle and any experienced can you count gold please for me , I never tried it before & seems more complicated .I want to trade in gold now.
fontu
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#670
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2008 10:49am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar35817_1.gif13thheaven
FF Lover
Member Since Mar 2007
215 Posts
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i wonder where blue bottle went...
need some advise with the eur/usd... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
@fontu
sorry i cannot help u bro...
but it seems that loco is on around 200-223.6% of the fib expansion, so it's probably on wave iv
but don't trust me...
i'm still a beginner...
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#671
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2008 11:05am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47447_1.gifsoso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif177 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fontu http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Bue bottle and any experienced can you count gold please for me , I never tried it before & seems more complicated .I want to trade in gold now.
fontu
Daily chart. I see it as a double zigzag in which we are in the last abc where a could be completed.
So this leg down should not be the last one and once the next leg up completes it should put (at least) a new low.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=161018&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1224774279
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#672
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2008 11:10am
fontu
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 13thheaven http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
i wonder where blue bottle went...
need some advise with the eur/usd... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
@fontu
sorry i cannot help u bro...
but it seems that loco is on around 200-223.6% of the fib expansion, so it's probably on wave iv
but don't trust me...
i'm still a beginner...
Its ok & thanks for some analysis . I have no knowledge about fib so far . Gold it very risky if fail to count properly , I think finished the subwave & now creating a & 4th corrective wave of bigger started to stay for some time .Or in 4th subwave of big 3
fontu
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#673
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2008 11:16am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar35817_1.gif13thheaven
FF Lover
Member Since Mar 2007
215 Posts
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at least it's not wrong... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
gold up to 732 from 702... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/whew!.gif
i'm just a wannabe analyst http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/tongue.gif
thx soso for giving ur analysis...
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Money management is good for your health...
Last edited by 13thheaven, Oct 23, 2008 11:37am
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#674
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2008 11:24am
fontu
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soso http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Daily chart. I see it as a double zigzag in which we are in the last abc where a could be completed.
So this leg down should not be the last one and once the next leg up completes it should put (at least) a new low.
Thanks soso & 13thheaven for the help . Now I will try understand before any trade placed.
fontu
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#675
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 23, 2008 7:48pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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EurChf chart.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=161230&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1224805702 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=161231&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1224805702 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=161235&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1224806243
Oct 24, 2008 1:59am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10kt.gif206 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Gold labels
Labels for gold chart, where A-B-C is combined to make a larger cycle W, X, Y and possibly Z. X wave can repeat, the A-B-C's keep going in the same direction down. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=161349&thumb=1&d=1224827956
__________________
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"Expect the best - prepare for the worst" Trade Charts and commentary: http://vault.bz
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #677
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2008 2:20am
fontu
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Labels for gold chart, where A-B-C is combined to make a larger cycle W, X, Y and possibly Z. X wave can repeat, the A-B-C's keep going in the same direction down. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attachment 161349
Thanks a lot I see it but perhaps the existing wave a still not bottomed , any idea the level it should ? I want buy at this level .and the intraday range possibly move .
fontu
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#678
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2008 4:49am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47447_1.gifsoso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif177 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Labels for gold chart, where A-B-C is combined to make a larger cycle W, X, Y and possibly Z. X wave can repeat, the A-B-C's keep going in the same direction down. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attachment 161349
Definetely FXoffshore, that's why I said (at least) a new low http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
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#679
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2008 4:58am
fontu
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by soso http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Definetely FXoffshore, that's why I said (at least) a new low http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
Great analysis and new low already happen , the doble bottom at 698.90$ apparently thought bottom of existing a but it not hold . So after it get a bottom it will go up for b & then again another new low c, right ?
where you think this bottom of a ,as below as 664$ this time ?
thanks all .
fontu
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#680
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2008 5:54am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47447_1.gifsoso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif177 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fontu http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Great analysis and new low already happen , the doble bottom at 698.90$ apparently thought bottom of existing a but it not hold . So after it get a bottom it will go up for b & then again another new low c, right ?
where you think this bottom of a ,as below as 664$ this time ?
thanks all .
fontu
I was talking about another low after this leg down completes. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
I have no idea the price level where this leg completes and I don't think there's any trading value in trying to bottom picking it. Always trade in the direction of impulse, right now is down so you should position down only. If you want to go long then wait until you see an impulsive move up then wait some more for its retracement and only then enter long - using your favorite setup. This is how I'd play it...
fontu, and others who are just starting using EW, please take into consideration that EW is not a full trading system, is just another tool to identify the trend and its strength. And it does a terrific job doing just that. And nothing more. So EW is just a tool in your trading strategy but you have to define the whole strategy and how you enter, how you exit and what role has EW in your strategy.
Good luck!
__________________
-soso
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#681
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 24, 2008 9:57am
fontu
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by soso http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I was talking about another low after this leg down completes. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
I have no idea the price level where this leg completes and I don't think there's any trading value in trying to bottom picking it. Always trade in the direction of impulse, right now is down so you should position down only. If you want to go long then wait until you see an impulsive move up then wait some more for its retracement and only then enter long - using your favorite setup. This is how I'd play it...
fontu, and others who are just starting using EW, please take into consideration that EW is not a full trading system, is just another tool to identify the trend and its strength. And it does a terrific job doing just that. And nothing more. So EW is just a tool in your trading strategy but you have to define the whole strategy and how you enter, how you exit and what role has EW in your strategy.
Good luck!
Thanks a lot again , I got the bottom 681.45$ I spot clearly & place buy orders & got more than expected profit in gold & though there were more chance in gpbjpy I did for gold in an ac specially for gold & other place gj 350 pips already & about 1000pips in probable with this count perfect.
Now after finishing a wave it is creating the b to upto 818$ minimum & then c wave down below to 681$ as 664$ ( possible) .
Thanks all who helps me .
fontu
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#682
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 27, 2008 3:17am
Rocroy
Senior Member
Member Since Jun 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif513 Posts
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I've been playing with ew about a week and based on that "experience" I would say that even though ew states clear rules for counting the waves, applying the rules is a problem. Especially fast moves are difficult, like euro's last leg down, which seems to be a never ending story. I bet that many elliotticans (including ew professionals) assumed that last friday bottom was the end for the w5, but that is not the case (as you can see right now).
When you say that ew is capable to show the trend, I'd say that yes, to some extent. But if you do not have any other means to determine end points of price movements, then you, at least occasionally, will enter or exit the market too early, simply because sometimes (often?) counting is more ad-hoc than "exact science". Experience in ew may help to some extent in this, but like the euro example shows, counting still is a pretty difficult task.
Good luck!
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by soso http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I was talking about another low after this leg down completes. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
I have no idea the price level where this leg completes and I don't think there's any trading value in trying to bottom picking it. Always trade in the direction of impulse, right now is down so you should position down only. If you want to go long then wait until you see an impulsive move up then wait some more for its retracement and only then enter long - using your favorite setup. This is how I'd play it...
fontu, and others who are just starting using EW, please take into consideration that EW is not a full trading system, is just another tool to identify the trend and its strength. And it does a terrific job doing just that. And nothing more. So EW is just a tool in your trading strategy but you have to define the whole strategy and how you enter, how you exit and what role has EW in your strategy.
Good luck!
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#683
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 27, 2008 3:25am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar68749_1.gifmphpopular
My first 100k
Member Since May 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif960 Posts
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Here is my GJ 15m.
Sorry bcoz I not a professional in EW. I still learning. What I know now is wait. and then short again...
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=162125&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225092313
__________________
Trendline I've drawn
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#684
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 27, 2008 3:41am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47447_1.gifsoso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif177 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I've been playing with ew about a week and based on that \\\\\\\"experience\\\\\\\" I would say that even though ew states clear rules for counting the waves, applying the rules is a problem. Especially fast moves are difficult, like euro's last leg down, which seems to be a never ending story. I bet that many elliotticans (including ew professionals) assumed that last friday bottom was the end for the w5, but that is not the case (as you can see right now).
When you say that ew is capable to show the trend, I'd say that yes, to some extent. But if you do not have any other means to determine end points of price movements, then you, at least occasionally, will enter or exit the market too early, simply because sometimes (often?) counting is more ad-hoc than \\\\\\\"exact science\\\\\\\". Experience in ew may help to some extent in this, but like the euro example shows, counting still is a pretty difficult task.
Good luck!
R
Hi Rocroy,
Overall you are right in what you are saying, I'll just clear a few points from my perspective.
I dont know how many ellioticians assumed that last Friday was THE bottom. I also made an assumption, I was (and still am) expecting a bottom but expecting it is completely a different story than trading it.
Those that bought Euro Friday or a few hours ago are bottom pickers and they are everywhere, you dont have to be an elliotician to be one http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif. Truth is that an elliotician may be more inclined to bottom pick than usual.
Back to expecting a bottom on Friday, I already said in my last post the way I'd trade reversals - always wait for the first impulsive move in the timeframe I'm trading then wait some more for the first retracement and then join in the direction of the impulse, if there is a bar setup.
And lastly, EW is just another trading tool (a trend identification tool for me) and it is based on probabilities, like any other technical tool. So yes, it fails, and sometimes in a miserable way. In the end is like you say, experience is the mother of all - with or without EW.
One more thing, I wouldnt worry in counting every bit of a fast move. Why do that? When it ends it ends, the first sign is an impulse in the opposite direction so until it reverses better stay chilled. I am still making this mistake though http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
This is true for complex corrections too, it is simply not worth to count every bit of a wave better mark some retracements/price S/R levels and when/if the correction gets there watch the price action around those levels and enter accordingly.
Hope it helps.
__________________
-soso
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#685
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 27, 2008 5:14am
fontu
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
It is apparent that the actual bottoms were not reached in gold & other pairs like gj , now heading for so.the big 5th leg still to go perhaps to complete a in d1 .
fontu
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#686
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 27, 2008 6:38am
Rocroy
Senior Member
Member Since Jun 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif513 Posts
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Thanks soso, good to hear how others are actually using ew.
I guess the reason to my post was that my few first ew experiments happened to go too well and based on those my hopes were set too high. So maybe it was time to set my feet back on the ground.
EW is far from useless but it has its limitations. I'm surely going to use it in the future, but I need to study it more and need more experience on it. Also, like you mentioned, I need something else to overcome ew limitations (including patience http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/waiting.gif) and I might just have the tools for that.
Trade well,
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by soso http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi Rocroy,
Overall you are right in what you are saying, I'll just clear a few points from my perspective.
I dont know how many ellioticians assumed that last Friday was THE bottom. I also made an assumption, I was (and still am) expecting a bottom but expecting it is completely a different story than trading it.
Those that bought Euro Friday or a few hours ago are bottom pickers and they are everywhere, you dont have to be an elliotician to be one http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif. Truth is that an elliotician may be more inclined to bottom pick than usual.
Back to expecting a bottom on Friday, I already said in my last post the way I'd trade reversals - always wait for the first impulsive move in the timeframe I'm trading then wait some more for the first retracement and then join in the direction of the impulse, if there is a bar setup.
And lastly, EW is just another trading tool (a trend identification tool for me) and it is based on probabilities, like any other technical tool. So yes, it fails, and sometimes in a miserable way. In the end is like you say, experience is the mother of all - with or without EW.
One more thing, I wouldnt worry in counting every bit of a fast move. Why do that? When it ends it ends, the first sign is an impulse in the opposite direction so until it reverses better stay chilled. I am still making this mistake though http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
This is true for complex corrections too, it is simply not worth to count every bit of a wave better mark some retracements/price S/R levels and when/if the correction gets there watch the price action around those levels and enter accordingly.
Hope it helps.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#687
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 27, 2008 8:06am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar35817_1.gif13thheaven
FF Lover
Member Since Mar 2007
215 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
can anyone post your analysis of the curren eur/usd chart?
i'm getting confused with it...
btw blue bottle hasn't been seen for a long time... i wonder where he's going...
__________________
Money management is good for your health...
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#688
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 27, 2008 8:51am
fontu
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
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I see the modified gold counts as it did not get the bottom before ,perhaps today:
http://www.gogetin.info/gld2710.gif
http://www.gogetin.info/gldd2710.gif
eurusd should correlate gold chart , will try latter .
fontu
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#689
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 27, 2008 9:08am
Rocroy
Senior Member
Member Since Jun 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif513 Posts
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Here is my euro count. Hopefully that support holds, so I don't have to update that damn w5 count once again!
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13thheaven http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
can anyone post your analysis of the curren eur/usd chart?
i'm getting confused with it...
btw blue bottle hasn't been seen for a long time... i wonder where he's going...
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=162235&thumb=1&d=1225112889
Oct 27, 2008 8:54pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar68749_1.gifmphpopular
My first 100k
Member Since May 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif960 Posts
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IN progress of learnign EW
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=162445&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225155236 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=162446&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225155236
__________________
Trendline I've drawn
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #695
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 28, 2008 3:02am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47447_1.gifsoso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif177 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPCAD
This is an example of how I am trading guys (or trying http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif), current GBPCAD Daily. I have posted this chart in the J16 thread as well last night (gmt) and in the meantime the order got activated.
We are in a prolonged sideways move from which I hope we're on our way out. So we have an impulsive move up followed by a retracement between 50-62% of w.1 in a HUGE Reversal Bar (or Pin Bar). Next bar is an inside bar but also a Reversal Bar.
Buy order at the break of the IB (or the previous big bar for safer entry).
First target somewhere near 2.1700.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=162560&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225177102
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#696
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 28, 2008 3:23am
bowman
Member
Member Since Oct 2008
120 Posts
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Not think, that purpose above. Probably downward, a slump proceeds in an economy.
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#697
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 28, 2008 5:39am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47447_1.gifsoso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif177 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDNZD, Daily
Another Daily chart that looks good imo.
We are in a consolidation that is most likely a wave 4 and the current high of this wave is pips away of a good confluence (50% retracement of waves (1) throguh (3) and 38% retracement of wave (3)).
The target for wave (5) should not be much lower than wave (3) bottom. We have an old S/R pivot sitting at 1.0430 and this is the level I am looking to take profit if I will be in the trade.
At this point I would say this correction is nearing its end and the only thing that misses is a bar setup to get us in. What we had yesterday was a Reversal Bar and if today will be an Inside Bar I will look to set a sell order 1 pip below Reversal Bar low.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=162615&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225186699
__________________
-soso
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#698
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 28, 2008 8:18am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar35817_1.gif13thheaven
FF Lover
Member Since Mar 2007
215 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
is it currently on wave 4 too on EURUSD?
the pattern is a little bit similar to the one on GBP not long ago... when blue bottle told me that it's going down again... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
can somebody explain it to me?
thx
__________________
Money management is good for your health...
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#699
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 28, 2008 8:48am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47447_1.gifsoso
Evil Speculator
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif177 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13thheaven http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
is it currently on wave 4 too on EURUSD?
the pattern is a little bit similar to the one on GBP not long ago... when blue bottle told me that it's going down again... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
can somebody explain it to me?
thx
I dont have anything on EURUSD, been looking at 4H timeframe but cant see nothing worth mentioning so for me it is the waiting stage regarding this currency, for now.
__________________
-soso
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#700
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 28, 2008 10:05am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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My cable chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=162693&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225202704
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#701
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 28, 2008 10:27am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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My UsdYen chart.
Looks good for short entry.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=162699&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225204016
Oct 28, 2008 10:58am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
NzdUsd
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=162714&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225205919
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #707
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 28, 2008 11:47am
livingFX
Member
Member Since Oct 2008
121 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
till now I don't know this tool of analisis but let's learning it!
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#708
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2008 4:47am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
Member Since Aug 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif125 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EUR GBP
Eur Gbp End Wave 2 Or B In Montly
Time End Wave 2 Or B
Pattern End Wave 20r B
Price End Wave 2 Or B
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=163056&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225270057
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#709
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2008 10:37am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar35817_1.gif13thheaven
FF Lover
Member Since Mar 2007
215 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
still no clue about the eur/usd anyone?
there's a cup and handle pattern i think...
should it move south later?
__________________
Money management is good for your health...
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#710
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2008 4:12pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10kt.gif206 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/yen.gif USD JPY Oct 29
Here is my YEN chart for this morning. My count is a wave IV was completed, and we have begun i and ii down in V. The short entries are at 98.30 for aggressive, and 95.97 for conservative traders. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=163334&thumb=1&d=1225311149
__________________
- FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
"Expect the best - prepare for the worst" Trade Charts and commentary: http://vault.bz
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#711
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2008 4:32pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10kt.gif206 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/euro.gif eur/usd
EUR completed a diagonal triangle V - as expected, and rocketed up in a wave 1 or A to near 1.2992
Below is today's chart with potential C wave short entry now. Looking for yesterdays chart to show the nice entry 1.2460, before this was updated. Good trading http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=163345&thumb=1&d=1225312291
__________________
- FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
"Expect the best - prepare for the worst" Trade Charts and commentary: http://vault.bz
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#712
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2008 5:38pm
Techmanff
Member
Member Since Sep 2008
24 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
One of the common rules in Forex trader is to take it easy and chose a simple indicator. Keep it easy!
Beside the fact that I don’t think it really work Elliot Waves, as far as I’ve studied, it’s too complicated and represent too much analysis time.
I think it’s worthless.
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#713
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2008 5:58pm
pipeye
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
149 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Techmanff http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
One of the common rules in Forex trader is to take it easy and chose a simple indicator. Keep it easy!
Beside the fact that I don’t think it really work Elliot Waves, as far as I’ve studied, it’s too complicated and represent too much analysis time.
I think it’s worthless.
Then don't use it!
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#714
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 29, 2008 7:36pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Here is my YEN chart for this morning. My count is a wave IV was completed, and we have begun i and ii down in V. The short entries are at 98.30 for aggressive, and 95.97 for conservative traders. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attachment 163334
Great chart FXoffshore.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
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#715
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 30, 2008 4:12am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar35817_1.gif13thheaven
FF Lover
Member Since Mar 2007
215 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
nothing is worthless...
a nice wave 3 can give u lots of pips...
and all analysis can support the others, so it's not worthless at all...
but it's up to you... if u feel it worthless, then simply don't use it... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Techmanff http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
One of the common rules in Forex trader is to take it easy and chose a simple indicator. Keep it easy!
Beside the fact that I don’t think it really work Elliot Waves, as far as I’ve studied, it’s too complicated and represent too much analysis time.
I think it’s worthless.
__________________
Money management is good for your health...
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#716
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 30, 2008 5:00am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2007
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hi all,
my NzdUsd chart.
Probably it completed 5 waves down in daily chart.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=163532&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225357216 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=163534&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225357356
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#717
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 30, 2008 12:05pm
johntsai
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Member Since Apr 2007
377 Posts
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Hi all,
here is one of the best ebook i ever read about the wave theory.
it is much easier to understand and apply.
http://rapidshare.de/files/40796847/Elliott_Waves_-_Advanced_Get_-_Applying_Technical_Analysis_Elliot _Waves.pdf.html
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#718
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 30, 2008 5:30pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10kt.gif206 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/yen.gif JPY
Updated outlook, it seems YEN is waiting for the interest rate announcement tonight, the result should be a move down on USD/JPY.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=163800&thumb=1&d=1225402199
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#719
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 30, 2008 5:46pm
johntsai
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Member Since Apr 2007
377 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Updated outlook, it seems YEN is waiting for the interest rate announcement tonight, the result should be a move down on USD/JPY.
Attachment 163800
could we be the uptrend now instead of downtrend in lower timeframe?
due to day chart have a 5 wave completed.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=163805&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225403000
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#720
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 30, 2008 6:43pm
pipeye
Member
Member Since Dec 2007
149 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif JPY
Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Updated outlook, it seems YEN is waiting for the interest rate announcement tonight, the result should be a move down on USD/JPY.
Attachment 163800
Is it possible that we have completed A and are in B of a larger ABC correction that would take us to the upper reaches of the previous wave(iv) around 102.50, before we complete a wave 5 down? This would be consistent with the principle of alternation, considering we had a pretty short wave 2, and would be consistent with the complex corrections that are taking place on the EUR, GBP and there impending wave 5's as well. Just my two cents.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=163823&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225406463
Oct 30, 2008 7:02pm
johntsai
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377 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipeye http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Is it possible that we have completed A and are in B of a larger ABC correction that would take us to the upper reaches of the previous wave(iv) around 102.50, before we complete a wave 5 down? This would be consistent with the principle of alternation, considering we had a pretty short wave 2, and would be consistent with the complex corrections that are taking place on the EUR, GBP and there impending wave 5's as well. Just my two cents.
This is so interesting. Everyone have their own elliott wave rule.
For me, here is how it looks like after fib retrace plug in.
5 wave already complete in day chart. now is the wave correction.
expecting hit fib 50 (wave 1-5) = wekly pivot point.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=163831&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225407585
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 30, 2008 7:51pm
pipeye
Member
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149 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Oil
Possible count
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=163850&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225410586
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#723
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 30, 2008 7:56pm
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UsdCad chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=163860&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225410999
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#724
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 30, 2008 8:07pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johntsai http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi all,
here is one of the best ebook i ever read about the wave theory.
it is much easier to understand and apply.
http://rapidshare.de/files/40796847/Elliott_Waves_-_Advanced_Get_-_Applying_Technical_Analysis_Elliot _Waves.pdf.html
hi Johntsai,
Welcome here and thanks for the ebook.
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#725
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 30, 2008 8:15pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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EurUsd chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=163863&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225412095
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#726
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2008 3:13am
Rocroy
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One alternative more on yen...
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=163994&thumb=1&d=1225437173
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#727
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2008 3:26am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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UsdChf chart
I am planning for short entries..
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#728
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2008 3:54am
Rocroy
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I'm not sure if B is ready. Check it on a shorter tf ...
A potential short entry at 1.1645?
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
UsdChf chart
I am planning for short entries..
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#729
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2008 4:21am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I'm not sure if B is ready. Check it on a shorter tf ...
A potential short entry at 1.1645?
R
Hi,
Already entered SHORT at 1.1534.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
I guess too risky, so moved my SL to breakeven.
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#730
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2008 4:59am
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Evil Speculator
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURCHF, H4
Am looking for the attached scenario, if it plays out, to short this pair.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=164020&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225443575
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#731
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2008 5:02am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon2.gif contracting triangles cannot be a wave 2
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
One alternative more on yen...
Elliott said contracting triangles cannot be a wave 2.
It can be a wave 4. Or, inside a complex correction, in the B wave or as a C wave.
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#732
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2008 6:13am
Rocroy
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I'm sure you are right, I do not know ew that well yet. But imo correcting that does not change counting much, only some details in the beginning are affected.
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Elliott said contracting triangles cannot be a wave 2.
It can be a wave 4. Or, inside a complex correction, in the B wave or as a C wave.
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#733
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2008 6:36am
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY, H4
Am looking to go LONG if the scenratio plays out.
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Oct 31, 2008 5:57pm
syria
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usdcad
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2008 7:56pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Sorry about my bad measurement, need to be more careful, correct entry was 1.1682.
Oh well, 1.1645 is not that far away. Did you get a good entry?
R
Nope, stopped at break even. That was a wrong entry.
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#738
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2008 8:51pm
deanbean
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Question
Hi! I don't know much about the Elliot's theory but I understand that the main trend is established by waves 1 through 5 and can be either up or down. The three following waves always move in the opposite direction of waves 1 through 5, good so far I guess, when I get kind of confused is when it comes to cycles, supercycles, , grand super cycles and so with all the other divisions of waves, but I really want to learn. I’ve been reading more about this method and I’ve been looking forward to keeping up on the thread. By the way, thanks.
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#739
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 31, 2008 8:59pm
SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Trade the reaction not the news!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Elliott said contracting triangles cannot be a wave 2.
It can be a wave 4. Or, inside a complex correction, in the B wave or as a C wave.
In Elliott's day there was no such thing as intra-day data such as H1 or 5M so I think EW rules should not be taken as absolutes - including the biggie that W4 shouldn't trade below W1 high. BTW this "rule" wasn't originally in Elliott Wave Theory. He put it in later on to please the wall street crowd.
Sometimes the price data just won't cooperate. Is it better to stick to the rules or find trades?
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#740
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2008 9:24am
fontu
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661 Posts
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Just checking the corrective waves in eurusd , seems still to down to complete wave B & then C if may not up above A but may touch & then finish big wave 4 of weekly counts to come down . as global turmoil yet to settle it may even go much extremes than expected .
http://www.gogetin.info/eu111.gif
fontu
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#741
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2008 4:49pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Elliott Rules are there for a reason
Quote:
Originally Posted by SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
... so I think EW rules should not be taken as absolutes - including the biggie that W4 shouldn't trade below W1 high. BTW this \"rule\" wasn't originally in Elliott Wave Theory. ...Sometimes the price data just won't cooperate. Is it better to stick to the rules or find trades?
I agree. Glen Neely covers this in his book, when he argues that EW using candles is not as accurate as using averaging data points. For most of us, this can be easily accomplished by using the 'line' view to cut average candle wicks. It also helps when doing counts by seeing through some noise in a different view. I used it a few times this week when wave 4 crept into wave 1 territory, and could justify relaxing the rule for a few pips. I see the rules as items not to be dismissed lightly for good reasons (that would allow incorrect counts to pass), rather than face an alternative count. Obey the rules, but use discretion when it is on the border line - and be aware of the consequences of changing rules. (experience says the rules are there for a reason). The EWI people also will not toss out a count because of a few pips from a candle wick, knowing that the structure of the count is most important.
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#742
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 1, 2008 5:49pm
Raza
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185 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I agree, 149.7 perhaps ...
Is it possible that this wave can make a possible double bottom, and then go Up. the bounce is gonna be much harder.... I am not familiar with EW..but wondering if it can do a double bottom... without violating your EW theory...curios...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/waiting.gif
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#743
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 2, 2008 10:30pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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hi all,
Usdcad chart.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=164716&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225683041
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#744
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 3, 2008 2:44pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Hi all,
My Audusd chart.
Expecting down movement for wB around 0.635x range.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=165091&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225741440
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#745
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 3, 2008 7:49pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
Member Since Aug 2007
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/euro.gif Euro count
Will we see Euro drop? Or stall until after the election?
http://vault.bz/up/chart/2008/11/eur-usd-nov3.jpg
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#746
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 3, 2008 8:12pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif CAD - ALT count
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
hi all, Usdcad chart.
Just wondering, if USD just had a week of correction in 3 waves, and it is anticipated that USD will gain strength Thursday after the GBP and EUR 50 bp rate cuts. Plus the after election boost. Then how do we explain CAD going so strongly the opposite way?
Perhaps we should consider an ALT count, with 3's down, as a possible continuation of CAD much higher? Just kicking it around, always like to consider the reasonable ALT counts.
When I stand back and look at CAD monthly or weekly, it looks like it has a wave.5 to complete large C up. THis correction may be a wave 4???? My 2 cents.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=165206&thumb=1&d=1225761158
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#747
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 3, 2008 9:06pm
pipeye
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149 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif elephantitis
For some reason, I have a feeling that we are going to see our fair share of truncated fifths relatively soon.
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#748
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 4, 2008 12:21am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10kt.gif206 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gif CAD
This may be the current CAD wave count for the retracement. The diagonal triangle C in IV makes sense, the 3 wave movements are clear in places, nothing looks like an impulse. It would be terminal, and followed by a rocket north when it is complete, if this is the correct count.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=165273&thumb=1&d=1225776049
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#749
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 4, 2008 2:04am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Bit confused with EurUsd,
so i came up with 2 possible counts.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=165312&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225782290 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=165313&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225782290
Nov 4, 2008 4:32am
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Evil Speculator
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD, H4
Hi guys,
Good thoughts you got there Blue bottle and FXoffshore. Looking at charts only (and ignoring elections which I know could set a new trend once they are done) it looks like we may have another high.
In my eyes the last leg up is impulsive and if it is true then we might have just reached the bottom for the 3-wave correction.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=165364&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225791123
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #754
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 4, 2008 12:08pm
fontu
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Member Since Mar 2008
661 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soso http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi guys,
Good thoughts you got there Blue bottle and FXoffshore. Looking at charts only (and ignoring elections which I know could set a new trend once they are done) it looks like we may have another high.
In my eyes the last leg up is impulsive and if it is true then we might have just reached the bottom for the 3-wave correction.
I think it the best explanation of the market situation , thanks soso . Hope follow the market prices & if it the situation it will be similar in most pairs . lets see what happen .
fontu
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#755
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 4, 2008 5:06pm
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Evil Speculator
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fontu http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I think it the best explanation of the market situation , thanks soso . Hope follow the market prices & if it the situation it will be similar in most pairs . lets see what happen .
fontu
Well it looks like strength of the move makes it clearly an impulsive one so probabilities are still for the original assumption meaning that we can expecy a new high, most probabily unfolded as a 5-wave move - the move up today being wave 1.
So I would look for a long setup again once the price retraces more at least 50% of today's move and thus creating the wave 2.
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#756
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 4, 2008 5:21pm
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Evil Speculator
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif USDJPY, H4
This is what I am watching lately...
P.S. FXoffshore and other experienced EW people what do you think about .786? It appeared yet again today, I never put much emphasis on it but seeing how price reacts lately near it I consider to upgrade its strengh in the future.
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#757
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 4, 2008 5:46pm
SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Trade the reaction not the news!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soso http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Well it looks like strength of the move makes it clearly an impulsive one so probabilities are still for the original assumption meaning that we can expecy a new high, most probabily unfolded as a 5-wave move - the move up today being wave 1.
So I would look for a long setup again once the price retraces more at least 50% of today's move and thus creating the wave 2.
Clearly it was a big move today but put a ADX indicator on your chart and you'll see that trend strength is flat. IMO even though it appears to be impulsive it is really a correction or ABC off the lows from 10/28/08. I'll change opinion if it closes above (on 4h chart) 1.3125 area and continues higher.
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#758
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 4, 2008 6:25pm
doji
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Clearly it was a big move today but put a ADX indicator on your chart and you'll see that trend strength is flat. IMO even though it appears to be impulsive it is really a correction or ABC off the lows from 10/28/08. I'll change opinion if it closes above (on 4h chart) 1.3125 area and continues higher.
I am also inclined to think the same way. My view is that Wave B is still in progress and we will still see a down-move before price moves up again for Wave C.
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#759
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 1:45am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Fibo .786
.786 is common in triangles to have the right slope. It is more useful to me than .50, which is not a Fibo number. It can move up to about .80 and down several points without much concern. Keep in mind that wave structure is critically important, while fibo ratios are guidelines for tests and targets that work better on expansion than on retracement.
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#760
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 2:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Clearly it was a big move today but put a ADX indicator on your chart and you'll see that trend strength is flat. IMO even though it appears to be impulsive it is really a correction or ABC off the lows from 10/28/08. I'll change opinion if it closes above (on 4h chart) 1.3125 area and continues higher.
I am considering this whole move up a correction. And we are in the 3rd wave of the correction which I expect it to be a 5 wave move thus impulsive. Maybe I should have been more clear of what impulses I was talking.
Later edit: Actually I am not sure if it is a larger correction or a short one (or the start of new long term trend up, yes this too), that is the reason it is noted with "i" rather than "1" or "a".
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Last edited by soso, Nov 5, 2008 2:20am
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#761
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 2:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
.786 is common in triangles to have the right slope. It is more useful to me than .50, which is not a Fibo number. It can move up to about .80 and down several points without much concern. Keep in mind that wave structure is critically important, while fibo ratios are guidelines for tests and targets that work better on expansion than on retracement.
Thanks FXoffshore. Regarding .50, it is on my top of the list along with .62, I've seen too many .50 levels hold the price if not trully reverse it to ignore it. Like right now on EURUSD which stopped at .50. I guess in the end is a matter of taste and experience.
Will keep an eye for .786 for a while from now on...
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#762
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 3:21am
fontu
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661 Posts
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Though there is a possibilities as soso stated but think we are still in big 4 wave correction as see in H4 & D1 and lower tf now in subwave b of C correction & may go up 1.3295( tip of A) or even up to finish the correction & then to start down the big 5th wave down .
fontu
Last edited by fontu, Nov 5, 2008 3:40am
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#763
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 3:30am
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Possible fontu, to tell you the truth I dont have any opinion for the whole move down on Euro since the July top. I can't count a clear 5-wave move down so for now I am ignoring the longer term count. Would love to see yours and other people longer term counts...
What matters most is the timeframe you're trading, if you have a good EW picture on that timeframe then is all good.
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#764
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 3:57am
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD, H4
This is what I am looking for.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=165869&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225875396
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Nov 5, 2008 9:57am
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif 4H chart count
fxoffshore, fontu, soso
this is my count.
I think a triangle is forming as wave 4 of (3 or C), counting from the July top.
cheers.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=166031&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225896843 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=166032&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225896843
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #767
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 11:33am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif update on triangle wave 4
my count (so far) on wave four is attached.
your comments on the count are welcome.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=166077&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225902791
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#768
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 12:28pm
fontu
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unicorn7411 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
fxoffshore, fontu, soso
this is my count.
I think a triangle is forming as wave 4 of (3 or C), counting from the July top.
cheers.
Very good counts unicorn , precise & clean . yes all the trouble with this 4 corrective wave forming the diagonal triangle & waiting for the break . as it will be a great fall it took lots of time & create much confusions /complexieties ( more perhaps till obama not down it??) too . I like your charts . I printed it for reference .
fontu
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#769
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 1:06pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
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Excellent chart counts Unicorn. Clean and detailed. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
This 4th wave could end with a move higher above 1.33 to complete a flat, or it can move down to continue the triangle wave D. It is good practice to consider the ALT count and define what would eliminate one or the other. Wave 4 are hard to call as complete in real time, personally I give them a lot of leeway to prove direction, or use small lots and wide stops - knowing the wave 5 is coming sometime.
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#770
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 2:13pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif wave 4 alternate counts
fontu, fxOffshore, thank you.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
I added the alternate count (flat).
Length(C) = Length(A) leads to 1.3460, and wave 4 goes above the bottom of wave 1 (1.3448) by 12 pips.
It better not enter within the price range of wave 1.
The top of C when Length(C) = 78.6% * Length(A) is at 1.3256
cheers.
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#771
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 5:11pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Hi all,
Usdjpy chart.
Looks good for short entry..
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#772
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 5, 2008 5:16pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Usdcad chart.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=166197&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225923361
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#773
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2008 3:20am
livingFX
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Hello to everybody! now I'm learning a lot Forex-theory but don't understand this indicator...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/sad.gif can anyone explain it to me? thankss
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#774
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2008 6:39am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
Member
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif70 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif It is not an indicator. It is an analysis methodology.
It is not an indicator.
It is an analysis methodology.
Google "Elliott Wave".
There is a lot of information on the net.
Be prepared to spend a lot of hours to understand all the details.
It takes perseverance to learn how to apply it.
Good Luck.
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#775
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2008 7:25am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/3kt.gif594 Posts
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EurGbp Daily chart.
I believe wave 4 is forming as triangle. Pls comment if other counts possible..
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=166526&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225974277
Nov 6, 2008 7:29am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
EurGbp Daily chart.
I believe wave 4 is forming as triangle. Pls comment if other counts possible..
Other possible count..
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=166534&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1225974568
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #777
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2008 4:06pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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where this triangle gonna break?
Long side or Short side?
If its wave 4 triangle then can expect it to break downwards for wave 5..
Patience needed now..
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#778
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2008 6:15pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif70 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif eurusd triangle update.
eurusd triangle update.
so far waves A, B, C of ABCDE triangle are complete.
Price is in the process of completing wave D.
If the triangle formation for wave 4 reflects reality, then price will bounce on lower triangle line and proceed up to test top triangle line (wave E) which will correspond to the completion of wave 4.
Next wave 5 (down) begins.
Unless ABC completed a 3-3-3 "flat";
in this case, eurusd has already started wave 1 of 5 down, and will slice through the lower triangle line, OR will first bounce on the line and then proceed down.
So Blue Bottle, I think that eurusd is going down; both of these EW scenarios are bearish for the euro.
For a bullish scenario, one must be able to count 5 waves up, on both of waves A and C examined.
I have tried, but I cannot see such a count; that is the reason I post such a detailed Elliott wave count.
Please take a look and try to count 5 waves up (following the rules). I would be very interested in a bullish count, if one exists.
Let me know.
FxOffshore, fontu, what's your take?
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Last edited by unicorn7411, Nov 6, 2008 6:47pm
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#779
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 6, 2008 6:46pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif70 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Alternate count
Quote:
Originally Posted by unicorn7411 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Unless ABC completed a 3-3-3 "flat";
in this case, eurusd has already started wave 1 of 5 down, and will slice through the lower triangle line, OR will first bounce on the line and then proceed down.
As a matter of fact, I do have a 5 wave count (about to complete in the area of 1.2650 ~ 1.2600).
It is not so "good looking", but it is a 5 wave count down, which means that when the lower triangle line is tested, (assuming this count is correct) the bounce will be wave 2.
For the shake of analysis, here is the chart. It is on 1000V bars (1000 contracts volume bars) on the futures contract (Globex).
Your comments and observations are welcome.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=166835&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226015115
Nov 7, 2008 3:25am
Rocroy
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My feeling is a bit same as yours. I'm not saying whether the triangle breaks on the upside or downside, but I think we'll get a complex correction. The previous corr was a simple one, maybe it is time for a more complex correction. It would mean that we will sit here, perhaps between 161 and 261 fibs quite a while. Maybe in December, when euro rate is lowered next time (?) we'll get w5.
Just my 2c, R
Quote:
Originally Posted by soso http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I'd be careful with the triangle count. Everyone sees it and expects it to break down. If I'd have to bet on a breakout direction I would do it on the upside. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thinking.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=166964&thumb=1&d=1226046225
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #782
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2008 3:31am
doji
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My take on the EUR?USD pair, for what it's worth:
We're in agreement that it's a Wave 4 correction, right? I see Wave A as a 5-wave up-move; Wave B which is in progress is a triangle; and the thrust when Wave B ends will be a 5-wave upmove (Wave C) that will complete the whole corrective ABC move.
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#783
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2008 3:44am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47447_1.gifsoso
Evil Speculator
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doji http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
My take on the EUR?USD pair, for what it's worth:
We're in agreement that it's a Wave 4 correction, right? I see Wave A as a 5-wave up-move; Wave B which is in progress is a triangle; and the thrust when Wave B ends will be a 5-wave upmove (Wave C) that will complete the whole corrective ABC move.
My same thoughs exactly. I'd rather see it like this.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=166967&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226047481
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#784
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2008 3:58am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47447_1.gifsoso
Evil Speculator
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif177 Posts
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How about Cable? The move down looks corrective to me. At this point we have A fib relationship between corrective waves and if it is on par with Euro then it should go up...
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#785
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2008 4:15am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47447_1.gifsoso
Evil Speculator
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif177 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY, H4
Corrective move down stopped between 50%-62% retracement zone. Also in there we have a strong pivot level that hold the price. From an EW pov we have a=c. Probabilities are in favor of Bullish following in my opinion.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=166981&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1226049317
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#786
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 7, 2008 6:47am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif good point
soso, Rocroy, doji
Thank you for your point of view. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
doji, the count you suggest is very interesting. I will look into the 5 wave A move.
cheers.
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#787
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2008 1:20am
fontu
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661 Posts
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Thanks all for the new views as the B wave still to finish & C to up to start but I still did not changed my mind of the old counting as we are in wave 4 correction making comlexes ,may be more but ultomately to down for the wave 5,Big C up still a possibilities though it may short cut now with already the 5 th wave starts inside the narrower proximities of the triangle in eurusd & if wave 1 =wave 5 then more 1600 pips to down & similar situation in most pairs similar .
just taking possibilities .
http://www.gogetin.info/eu811.gif
ma,stoches ,Lswpr & no divergence arround suggest this movement .
fontu
Last edited by fontu, Nov 8, 2008 1:58am
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#788
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2008 10:04am
TheCable
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110 Posts
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soso wave ii is rarely a triangle..I'll consider it wave B.I'm talking about the eur/usd count.
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#789
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2008 11:35am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doji http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I see Wave A as a 5-wave up-move; Wave B which is in progress ; and the thrust when Wave B ends will be a 5-wave upmove (Wave C) that will complete the whole corrective ABC move.
doji;
I cannot have a clean 5 wave count for A;
It does not look natural; in my opinion one has to force the count to be 5 waves as opposed to a WXY;
If you have a detailed count of A please post it.
Thank you. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#790
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 8, 2008 3:12pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar77494_1.gifsaeidhidari
Eliot wave trader
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Other possible count..
hi ms
small t.p
eur gbp montly
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=167392&thumb=1&d=1226175071
eur gbp 5m +garttly =1:1:c
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#791
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 9, 2008 2:36am
Rocroy
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How about this count - any comments? May not be very clean / nice looking, but do you find any faults in it?
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by unicorn7411 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
doji;
I cannot have a clean 5 wave count for A;
It does not look natural; in my opinion one has to force the count to be 5 waves as opposed to a WXY;
If you have a detailed count of A please post it.
Thank you. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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#792
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 9, 2008 5:53am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar64906_2.giftemitope
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Member Since Mar 2008
19 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif gu..easy easy easy.just look n u shall see
hi traders..wow..what can i say.I am really glad to find this thread..i have been dying to meet good wave traders..i mean those that are sound..in there counting..or join a party of wave traders but have really been unable to find one..till now i mean..it was like nobody trades wave..but am glad i found you guys..so i will say thanks for keeping the thread up till am here...
Now to business..ill like to start with the gbp/usd analysis....its really a tricky one..for those that are in the unknown zone..but i guess we are lucky uh..?anyway...gu is currently trading in the wave B zone for now NO DOUBT ABOUT that! as triangles are not in wave 2 but only in 4 and Bs and this definitely is not a 4 so we are left with one option B.Now here comes the tricky part..as a waver..we all know the C move is up..n i think we are all anticipating to go long..but before we get jumpy..i will like to bring our notice to this..
the first wave up wave A unfolded in a 3 wave pattern..thereby paving a way for a flat consideration...as we all know that a 3 wave move up as A precedes a 3 wave move down for B,with a new price high (in bear a new price low.)so i will like to break down these wave B into wave counting to confirm the analysis..now.
First triangles take a 3 3 3 3 3 pattern labelled abcde.now as i have indicated in my chart below we are currently in the (d) of b and i want you to remember that wave (e) is still coming..which as we all know..will undershoot the trendline..
there is actually so much to say but i hope we can all develop on this..n understand that the market..will still form a new low before..the C bull wave will begin..and with the news of usd gaining this week..i dont think it is wise to go long now..till the e wave is completed..
Another reading ..using ratio analysis in wave..also forcasts the same thing as i have also shown in my chart below..that a new low must be seen before a bulish C would be formed..my..ratio analytical targets are as follow..
wave (a)of B travelled 1092 points downward..and since wave A equals wave C using the equality rulein a normal zigzag..wave C will also travel 1092 points or more..giving the target point at 1.5100 precisely..but there could be more depending on the dow confirmations...there by confirming again that a new low will be seen.
So why not sit back and relax ..watch and wait for this low to be seen before going long...as for me.. i will start going long..on gu from this point..i mean 1.5100 with a good money management..i hope these will shead the light that we are all waiting for.We wil talk about the target point..when we are in the long position...uhmmm..
Can u imagine..even using chart patterns..we are seeing a decending triangle..a confirmation for short....and using trendline analysis...u can sell on the break of this lower trendline.......what else could you possibly want?NOW WHO SAYS THE MARKET IS CHAOTIC....pls keep piping.or watching...
for any arguments or more explanation..mail omotope00@yahoo.com (add ff)
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Last edited by temitope, Nov 9, 2008 6:13am
Nov 9, 2008 10:01am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EW count of A of 4 (of 3 or C)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
How about this count - any comments? May not be very clean / nice looking, but do you find any faults in it?
R
Hi Rocroy;
Thanks for the count;
It is almost the same as the one I came up with.
Now, let me explain what I don't like about it:
If you pick all the waves labeled as 1 and go to the 2 min (or the 1 min) chart and examine them you will verify that they are a-b-c sequences; not clean 1-2-3-4-5 sequences.
This means that the perceived (1-2-3) sets of the assumed (1-2-3)-4-5 sequences are in effect breaking as 3-3-5 sequences i.e. as corrective a-b-c while the perceived 4-5 sequence is the following X-Y of the W-X-Y.
This points to 3-3-5 waves as W, followed by (3-3-3) X, followed by a five structure, the Y wave.
Have a look; let me know.
All observations and analysis remarks are welcome. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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Last edited by unicorn7411, Nov 9, 2008 10:44am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #797
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 9, 2008 11:13am
SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Trade the reaction not the news!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue bottle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
doji, hope it helps u..
Or use Manage Attachments - down below Smiley Emoticons - in the Additional Options box
Browse, upload etc.
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#798
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 9, 2008 11:40am
Rocroy
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Thanks for a detailed and careful analysis, I'm glad you joined the thread.
Now to your claim about first waves (on bold below). I did examine the waves on 1min chart, and it seems to me that both counts are possible. They (1. waves) may not the most elegant or clean impulses, but anyhow imo counting them as such does not violate any of the ew rules. And if this is the case, I'd certainly prefer 1-2-3-4-5 instead of a-b-c.
Anyhow, I guess we just need to wait for additional data and complete the counting when we know a little bit more.
Thanks again, R
Quote:
Originally Posted by unicorn7411 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi Rocroy;
Thanks for the count;
It is almost the same as the one I came up with.
Now, let me explain what I don't like about it:
If you pick all the waves labeled as 1 and go to the 2 min (or the 1 min) chart and examine them you will verify that they are a-b-c sequences; not clean 1-2-3-4-5 sequences.
This means that the perceived (1-2-3) sets of the assumed (1-2-3)-4-5 sequences...
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#799
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 9, 2008 12:36pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar64906_2.giftemitope
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif gu again
fontu
oh..i think i now get what you are trying to say fontu...besides i am not disputing the fact that we are in a wave 4..but thats on a daily timeframe..and about the complain on why the 38.2 point has not been met is not a big deal cos its going to hit..before we see more movement down..more..but mean while i feel the wave 4 (broken down) itself is trying to be a complex flat with a temporal new low that would be formed at around..1.5100 as first target and a complete analytical point at 1.4925 in order to justify the movement up C...am very positive about this as this point i mean the 38.2% retracement point will be achieved.then ..only then will the new low wave 5 be seen.
thanks for the enlightenment but am talking about the wave 4 itself..the circles point is the point of concern.
pls i will gladly welcome anymore coments..pls.
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#800
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 9, 2008 8:33pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif EURO Triangle may complete wave E tonight.
As expected, a bearish contracting triangle formed as wave 4 in EUR/USD over the past 4 weeks, and it is reaching an optimum trade entry with the near completion of wave E. Aggressive traders can enter within the red-dashed box near 1.30 at the top of E with 1/2 lots, then the other 1/2 when price breaks the lower trend line and closes a candle to confirm the downward start of wave i of (5) down. Downside target is below 1.2300, and may exceed 1.20 by mid-December to set a low before a large retracement.
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Nov 9, 2008 9:44pm
pipeye
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Member Since Dec 2007
149 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Cable
Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
As expected, a bearish contracting triangle formed as wave 4 in EUR/USD over the past 4 weeks, and it is reaching an optimum trade entry with the near completion of wave E. Aggressive traders can enter within the red-dashed box near 1.30 at the top of E with 1/2 lots, then the other 1/2 when price breaks the lower trend line and closes a candle to confirm the downward start of wave i of (5) down. Downside target is below 1.2300, and may exceed 1.20 by mid-December to set a low before a large retracement.
Attachment 167610
Hey FXoffshore,
Considering the euro is forming a triangle in its wave 4. Do you think that the Pound could have already completed its wave 4 and possibly wave 1 of 5. I have attached a chart with what appears to be a 5 wave count in wave 1 and also a nice Head and Shoulders pattern developing. Your comments would be much appreciated.
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #802
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 12:11am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif Cable in a triangle as well
Hi Pipeye,
I do not normally trade Cable, so my charts are not kept 'in tune'. I only look at EUR/USD, oil, S&P, as swing trades, mid term. But I gave it a quick evaluation. I see GBP in a triangle as well, wave A is a double zig-zag like Euro I assumed, and the rest counts easily. If this is the correct count, wave E is near complete now - I would expect another push higher with a false break to the top side, then the start of wave V down.
On your chart, wave 4 significantly overlaped wave 1, which breaks one of the three rules. Sometimes this can be the case in a diagonal triangle, but I don't see it in that form, I could easily be wrong. Always best to consider the alternative and welcome valid counts. The key is knowing how to eliminate or lower some counts, and ideally get to just one before entering the trade. For me that is an "8-cycle" (a 5 followed by a 3 retracement).
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#803
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 7:22am
pipeye
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149 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi Pipeye,
I do not normally trade Cable, so my charts are not kept 'in tune'. I only look at EUR/USD, oil, S&P, as swing trades, mid term. But I gave it a quick evaluation. I see GBP in a triangle as well, wave A is a double zig-zag like Euro I assumed, and the rest counts easily. If this is the correct count, wave E is near complete now - I would expect another push higher with a false break to the top side, then the start of wave V down.
On your chart, wave 4 significantly overlaped wave 1, which breaks one of the three rules. Sometimes this can be the case in a diagonal triangle, but I don't see it in that form, I could easily be wrong. Always best to consider the alternative and welcome...
Much appreciated. You know, I have been a little confused about the overlap rule (wave 4 into wave 1), as it seems that some people allow for it to enter but not close into the area of wave 1. The problem with that is the ambiguity it creates. From now on, no overlap for this kid.
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#804
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 7:38am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar54182_2.gifBlue bottle
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UsdCad chart.
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#805
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 8:49am
SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Trade the reaction not the news!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipeye http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Much appreciated. You know, I have been a little confused about the overlap rule (wave 4 into wave 1), as it seems that some people allow for it to enter but not close into the area of wave 1. The problem with that is the ambiguity it creates. From now on, no overlap for this kid.
As I said earlier, I think the only trouble with that is sometimes the waves just don't cooperate. A wave 4 trades into wave 1, then a wave 5 completes and the trader is left behind.
Last edited by SunTrader, Nov 10, 2008 4:51pm Reason: clarity
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#806
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 3:39pm
lacika
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92 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EW
Hi!
I read The quick and short about EW.
What would a seasonned(successfull) EW counter trader advise me to read after?
THX,NL
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#807
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 8:33pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar47291_4.gifFXoffshore
History & Economic Cycles
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon3.gif Elliott Wave Free Online Resources
Quote:
Originally Posted by lacika http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I read The quick and short about EW. What would a seasonned(successfull) EW counter trader advise me to read after? THX, NL
Read everything you can. There are many free resources. And practice counts on charts. It takes a great amount of practice to learn, and much experience to sense when you have a too many viable counts to trade.
Quote:
Elliott Wave International's tutorial is the most comprehensive introduction to the Elliott Wave Principle available in cyberspace. All ten lessons have been adapted from Prechter and Frosts Wall Street bestseller, Elliott Wave Principle - Key to Market Behavior.
To start your Elliott wave education now, click here.
Buy the book, and take the online free courses while you are waiting. A collection is in the early stages of being published at: http://vault.bz/elliott-wave/
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#808
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 9:24pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar15771_1.gifunicorn7411
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Triangle Resolution
ok; done with wave 4. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/cool.gif
It is time to count the 5 wave sequence that is under way.
i.e. count the sub-waves of 1 of 5 of (3 or C).
I have noticed that some friends are counting wave 3 as completed and the triangle wave 4 as being 4 of a larger 5- wave structure.
My count considers this triangle as wave 4 of 3 (or C), and considers the current wave that has started today as 5 of 3 (or C). Your observations and comments on this aspect of the count are welcome (count details given at my first post on this thread).
Next chart, today's 5 wave sequence.
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#809
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 10:00pm
SunTrader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
Trade the reaction not the news!
Member Since Mar 2006
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Robert Prechter teaches theory.
But the guy who teaches how to practically trade EW is Robert Miner and his book is Dynamic Trading.
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#810
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Nov 10, 2008 10:59pm
pipeye
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Member Since Dec 2007
149 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Eur/Usd
Is it possible that we just completed D and are on our way to complete E?
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